The Rockies are heading into Tuesday night’s game in Phoenix looking to stop the bleeding after getting hammered 9-0 in the series opener. Despite sitting last in the NL West, the offense has actually shown some fight lately. Over their last 10 games, Colorado is averaging 5.30 runs per game and posting a robust .797 OPS. That offensive momentum, especially from guys like Jake McCarthy, has been a notable bright spot. We’ll get underway tonight at Chase Field, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. MT.
The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are focused on holding their playoff positioning, and they looked the part on Monday night. They handled the Rockies easily and are relying on young arms to fill out the rotation as they push toward October. Tonight, they hand the ball to Mitch Bratt, a lefty who is still finding his feet in the big leagues but has shown flashes of potential.
The challenge for Colorado is getting quality innings against a motivated division rival while maintaining their offensive production. For the Rockies to compete, veteran Tomoyuki Sugano needs to keep the ball in the park, and the hot offense needs to aggressively attack Bratt’s known control issues.
The Breakdown
This matchup sets up a potential high-scoring affair because both starting pitchers are bringing serious vulnerabilities to the mound tonight. The deciding factor won’t be about dominance; it will be about which pitcher manages to limit the damage longest.
For the Rockies, Tomoyuki Sugano takes the mound, and while he’s been a reliable veteran presence, he has a persistent problem with the long ball. Across his last 10 starts, Sugano has allowed an alarming 2.17 home runs per nine innings. Pitching to contact like that in a competitive park against a playoff contender is risky business. Crucially, his inability to go deep—averaging only 5.40 innings per start—means that notoriously shaky Rockies bullpen (4.96 ERA) is almost guaranteed to see serious action early tonight.
The Diamondbacks counter with Mitch Bratt, and he presents a different, but equally glaring, weakness. While his overall ERA is decent, Bratt simply cannot find the strike zone right now. In his recent six starts, he has walked nearly six batters per nine innings (5.86 BB/9), leading to a sky-high 1.518 WHIP. He is giving away far too many free passes, and against a team that has been hitting well lately, that lack of control is a dangerous invitation.
The key matchup in this game is whether the Rockies’ recent offensive surge can exploit Bratt’s disastrous command. The Rockies’ offense, surprisingly, has been one of the best in the league over the last 10 games, posting a .797 OPS. If Colorado’s hitters stay disciplined and force Bratt to work, they should be able to drive up his pitch count quickly and convert those free bases into runs on the scoreboard.
For the Rockies to pull off the road win, the formula is clear: Sugano must pitch effectively into the sixth inning and absolutely minimize the home runs allowed. Anything less puts immediate, insurmountable pressure on the bullpen. The offense needs to continue its patient, high-production run, scoring early and often before the D-backs can turn this game over to their superior relief options.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Colorado Rockies (+156) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-174)
- Run Line: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115) | Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-138)
- Over/Under: O/U 9 (Over -116 / Under -104)
Our Pick
Tonight’s game has all the hallmarks of a high-scoring mess, which is exactly where we find value on the total. We have two, deeply flawed starting pitchers facing offenses ready to capitalize on those flaws. The primary issue for Arizona’s Mitch Bratt is command; his astronomical walk rate (5.86 BB/9) is a massive gift to a recently potent Colorado offense that has been thriving lately. Even if the Rockies score early, we know Tomoyuki Sugano is prone to the long ball (2.17 HR/9), ensuring the D-backs will put up runs, too.
The total is set at 9, but the true key to this Over hitting comfortably is the fragility of the Rockies ‘pitching staff after the fifth inning. Sugano averages just over five innings per start, meaning that Colorado’s 4.96 ERA bullpen will be tested early and often. Given that both starters are highly likely to surrender runs and the Rockies’ relief corps is structurally weak, we see this one soaring past the total. The line for the Over is available at -116, and if you’re looking to lay some juice on this total, you should definitely check out the current BetMGM promo code and their offers for new users.
Pick: Over 9 (-116)
Player Prop Pick
We are focusing our attention tonight on a massive platoon advantage that should benefit a Rockies hitter who is playing the best baseball of his career: Jake McCarthy.
Diamondbacks starter Mitch Bratt is a left-hander who has shown significant vulnerability to left-handed hitting this season, allowing an abysmal 0.979 OPS against LHBs. This sets up perfectly for McCarthy, who has been tearing the cover off the ball recently and was just named NL Player of the Week.
McCarthy is currently scorching, posting a robust .705 slugging percentage over his last 10 games. His recent betting trends confirm this momentum, showing he has exceeded the Total Bases line of 1.5 in 7 of his last 9 outings. Given Bratt’s propensity to walk batters (5.86 BB/9) combined with his severe struggle against lefties, McCarthy, a patient LHB with huge recent slugging numbers, is perfectly poised to exploit this matchup for multiple bases. DraftKings is offering excellent value here, expecting him to achieve multiple singles or an extra-base hit tonight.
Pick: Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 Total Bases (+111)
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.