The Colorado Rockies are closing out another long summer, navigating the final days of a historic, fourth consecutive 100-loss season. They own the worst record in the majors, having dropped eight of their last ten and 16 of their last 20 games. Yet, even stationed firmly in the basement, this team occasionally finds ways to show flashes of life. They recently hung a 9-6 victory on these Chicago White Sox, powered by an 11-hit, three-homer outburst that saw Hunter Goodman blast his 40th and 41st long balls of the year – becoming the first Rockie to reach that 40-homer plateau since Nolan Arenado in 2019. Fans can catch today’s action starting with a 1:10 p.m. MT first pitch.
Chicago arrives at this matchup writing a completely different script. After suffering their own string of 100-loss campaigns in recent years, the White Sox just clinched a postseason berth, making them the first team in major league history to pull off that specific turnaround. They have won six of their last ten games, playing the kind of steady, purposeful baseball that Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer openly admits his club is trying to emulate. They might have missed out on the AL Central division title earlier this week, but the No. 6 seed White Sox are locked in and preparing for October.
For Colorado to string together back-to-back wins this afternoon, they need to repeat their recent offensive surge. If the bats stay active and they keep driving the ball out of the yard, the Rockies have a realistic shot to put a dent in Chicago’s momentum.
The Breakdown
The storyline on the mound today carries real weight for Colorado fans. Veteran left-hander Kyle Freeland takes the ball in what could be his final start in a Rockies uniform. The Denver native is staring down impending free agency, and after an emotional final home start at Coors Field last week, he gets one more turn to leave a mark on the organization. The recent numbers, however, tell a tough story. Over his last 10 starts spanning 54.1 innings this season, the long ball has haunted him. Freeland is surrendering 1.82 home runs per nine innings during that stretch, pushing his ERA to an inflated 5.63.
Chicago counters with left-hander Anthony Kay, a former first-round pick who reinvented himself in Japan – winning a title there before returning to secure a rotation spot with the White Sox. Kay’s issue lately isn’t necessarily getting hit hard; it’s getting deep. Across his last 10 starts, he is averaging a concerning 4.93 innings per outing, leaving a heavy burden on the Chicago bullpen.
The X-factor this afternoon is how Freeland navigates a White Sox lineup that has recently found its power stroke. Over their last 10 games, Chicago is averaging 6.4 runs while launching 15 home runs. For a pitcher already struggling to keep the ball in the yard, that is a highly dangerous matchup. Meanwhile, Colorado’s offense has been largely quiet outside of their recent outburst, averaging a modest 3.8 runs per game with 11 homers over their last 10 contests.
To win this one, Freeland has to neutralize the power threat and keep the ball in the park. On the other side, Colorado’s lineup must exploit Kay’s short outings. If they work counts, chase Kay by the fifth inning, and lean on their right-handed bats, they have a path to handing Chicago another loss.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Chicago White Sox (-204) / Colorado Rockies (+169)
- Run Line: Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+100) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -105 / Under -114)
Our Pick
Laying -204 on a moneyline in baseball rarely offers true value, so the smart approach today is targeting the run line. Caesars is showing the Chicago White Sox at -1.5 (+100), and there is logic in backing the home team to win by multiple runs.
The Rockies have dropped eight of their last 10 games, reflecting a roster running out of gas as another 100-loss season concludes. Meanwhile, Chicago is a steady 6-4 over that same window, preparing for wild-card baseball. The most glaring difference between these two squads right now lives in the late innings. The White Sox boast a reliable bullpen carrying a 3.71 ERA on the year. Colorado’s relievers, by contrast, are dragging a bloated 4.83 ERA to the mound. If this game stays tight through five or six innings, the Rockies’ leaky relief corps is highly likely to surrender the insurance runs needed to cover this spread. Before locking in your card, make sure to take advantage of the Caesars promo for new users. Trust the superior bullpen and the playoff-bound roster to secure a comfortable victory this afternoon.
Pick: Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+100)
Player Prop Pick
While the narrative around Kyle Freeland’s potential final start is compelling, the real betting edge this afternoon sits on the other side of the diamond. We are looking directly at Chicago left-hander Anthony Kay to struggle against a specific segment of the Colorado lineup. DraftKings has Kay’s earned runs allowed line set at 1.5, with the over priced at a very reasonable -102.
The defining flaw in Kay’s profile this season is a severe platoon split. Right-handed hitters have punished him all year to the tune of a .290 batting average, an .869 OPS, and 19 home runs across 500 plate appearances. That specific vulnerability spells serious trouble against a Rockies order anchored by scorching right-handed bats. Hunter Goodman is wielding a 1.041 OPS with four homers over his last 10 games, while Ezequiel Tovar is swinging an .861 OPS over the same span.
Kay is already struggling to pitch deep into games, posting a 5.11 ERA over his last 10 starts. Banking on Colorado’s righties to manufacture at least two runs before he hits the showers is a highly logical play. Keep tabs on more Rockies news as the offseason approaches.
Pick: Anthony Kay Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-102)
Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.