The Colorado Rockies missed an opportunity to sweep the division-rival San Francisco Giants on Sunday, and by doing so, failed to climb out of the National League’s cellar. May was a rough month for the hometown faithful, with the Rockies dropping 14 of their last 20 games, but they’ll look to start June on a different note as they head out to the West Coast to face the Los Angeles Angels. First pitch from Angel Stadium is scheduled for 7:38 p.m. MT tonight.
They are catching an Angels team dealing with an almost identical set of long-term organizational and roster flaws. Los Angeles holds a remarkably similar overall record to Colorado, but they have played better baseball of late. While the Rockies mostly stumbled through May, the Angels finished the month as winners of six of their last 10 games, giving Los Angeles a bit more immediate confidence – and a slight edge in recent form coming into this series.
The Breakdown
Tonight’s matchup on the mound features Colorado’s Kyle Freeland squaring off against Los Angeles pitcher José Soriano. It has been a difficult stretch for Freeland so far this year. Across his 42.1 innings pitched this season, the veteran left-hander has struggled to keep opponents off the basepaths, logging a swollen 8.08 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He has also been prone to giving up hard contact, surrendering 2.55 home runs per nine innings. You hate to see a hometown guy struggle, but the underlying metrics paint a harsh reality about his ability to miss barrels right now. On the other side, Soriano brings a drastically different profile. The Angels starter boasts a strong 3.19 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over his 59.1 innings on the year. His biggest weapon is an undeniable ability to miss bats, highlighted by a 10.16 K/9 rate, though he can occasionally run into trouble with his control by issuing 3.79 walks per nine innings.
The primary X-factor tonight will be whether the Rockies’ lineup can manufacture enough run support to keep pace with a recently productive Angels offense. Over their last 10 games, Los Angeles has been swinging the bat well, averaging 5.60 runs per game with a .752 OPS. Meanwhile, Colorado has lagged behind in that same span, posting just 4.10 runs per game and a stagnant .691 OPS. The key for Colorado’s hitters is capitalizing on any free passes Soriano issues, trying to generate traffic early before Los Angeles turns to a vulnerable bullpen carrying a 5.08 ERA.
For the Rockies to pull out a victory, the path is clear but challenging. Freeland has to limit the early damage, avoid the crooked numbers, and string together clean innings to give his team a fighting chance. Offensively, Colorado’s lineup needs to find ways to work counts against Soriano, elevate their recent scoring output, and cash in when runners reach scoring position.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Los Angeles Angels -200 / Colorado Rockies +165
- Run Line: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+105) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Our Pick
The moneyline heavily favors Los Angeles, but laying steep juice on a 23-37 Angels squad doesn’t offer any real value for a strategic bettor. Instead, our highest-confidence play focuses on the total. With Kyle Freeland on the mound for Colorado, the Rockies are already operating at a likely defensive deficit early in games. But the real edge for this bet surfaces in the later innings.
Both of these teams deploy significantly flawed relief corps. The Rockies’ bullpen enters tonight carrying a shaky-at-best 4.99 ERA, while the Angels’ relievers have been just as generous, posting a 5.08 ERA. Even if José Soriano pitches a relatively clean game for Los Angeles, Colorado’s lineup should find some late-game traction once the Angels turn to their volatile bullpen. Conversely, Los Angeles should have no problem generating offense against the Colorado relievers. MGM has the total set at a very manageable 8 runs. Given the backend pitching vulnerabilities on both sides, backing a higher-scoring affair is the smartest angle tonight.
Pick: Over 8 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
When hunting for a compelling edge on the board tonight, the total bases market offers the cleanest value, and we are targeting Colorado’s Ezequiel Tovar.
Despite the Rockies’ overall offensive inconsistencies, Tovar’s bat has finally come alive. Over his last 10 games, the infielder is boasting a robust .553 slugging percentage and an impressive .870 OPS. He has been consistently making hard contact, averaging 1.1 hits per contest while already swatting three home runs in that same span. Even with Los Angeles sending a quality arm like José Soriano to the mound, Tovar’s recent extra-base power makes him a prime candidate to generate offense and find the gaps.
Given his current hot streak and his ability to drive the ball for extra bases, banking on Tovar to eclipse this number is the sharpest player prop angle for this matchup.
Pick: Ezequiel Tovar Over 1.5 Total Bases
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.