The Colorado Rockies are sitting well below .500, and the bleeding hasn’t stopped. They’ve now dropped seven of their last ten games and 14 of their last 20, struggling to find any real traction as the summer grinds on. Things haven’t improved over the past week, with the team dropping four of its last five contests. They will try to find some sort of footing and reverse the trend againts the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers when the first pitch goes across the plate tonight at 7:10 p.m. MT.
The Dodgers sit on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, coming into this matchup boasting 33 wins on the year and taking eight of their last ten games to pad their NL West division lead. Like Colorado, they have a four-in-five stretch recently, but the Dodgers are on the winning side of their math.
Matching the pace of a Los Angeles squad finding multiple ways to win right now is a tall task. Colorado needs to quiet the Dodgers’ momentum early and string together quality at-bats before the deficit gets out of hand. If they let Los Angeles dictate the tempo from the first inning, it will be a long night for the visitors.
The Breakdown
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Tanner Gordon taking the mound for Colorado against Los Angeles starter Emmet Sheehan. Over his recent workload of 27.1 innings, Gordon has struggled to limit traffic, posting a bloated 6.59 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. His control has been decent – walking just 1.98 batters per nine innings – but he takes too much of the plate. When you throw strikes that catch the middle of the zone, big-league hitters make you pay. Period. On the other side, Sheehan brings a high-ceiling profile to the hill. He flashes high-end swing-and-miss stuff, racking up 10.05 strikeouts per nine innings across his recent 45.2 frames. He remains vulnerable, though. Sheehan carries a 4.93 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in that span, showing he bleeds runs when teams actually put the ball in play.
The X-factor tonight is whether the Rockies’ bats can exploit Sheehan’s inconsistencies to keep pace with a potent Dodgers offense. Over their last 10 games, Los Angeles has been highly productive, averaging 6.20 runs per contest with a .756 team OPS. Colorado has been completely anemic during that same 10-game stretch, pushing across just 3.10 runs per game with a miserable .562 OPS. The Rockies have to minimize empty strikeouts against Sheehan and force him into high-stress situations early in the count.
For the Rockies to pull out a victory, the blueprint starts entirely with Gordon. He must avoid the heart of the plate and pitch efficiently to keep a dangerous Los Angeles lineup at bay. Offensively, the Rockies need to snap out of their recent funk by showing improved plate discipline and manufacturing runs when they get men on base. It is a tough challenge given the current momentum of both clubs. A clean start from Gordon paired with opportunistic hitting is Colorado’s best path to stealing a win.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Rockies +260 / Dodgers -333
- Run Line: Rockies +2.5 (-125) / Dodgers -2.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 9 (Over +100 / Under -120)
Our Pick
The moneyline offers zero value on Los Angeles, making the Dodgers on the run line the most logical play tonight. DraftKings has the Dodgers laying -2.5 runs at +105 odds. That is a heavy number to lay some juice on for a baseball game, but one this matchup fully supports.
Gordon has been highly vulnerable lately. Even if he navigates a few innings successfully, he eventually hands the ball over to a Rockies bullpen carrying a shaky 4.28 ERA. Against a Los Angeles lineup boasting a .771 team OPS, Colorado is likely going to cough up runs throughout the evening. You can’t give out free passes or make mistakes over the middle against this roster. On the flip side, the Rockies’ offense has been stagnant. Any late-game rallies will have to contend with a Dodgers bullpen that consistently locks games down with a stellar 2.87 ERA.
Colorado lacks the firepower to keep pace, and their pitching staff does not possess the ability to suppress this surging Los Angeles lineup for nine innings. Expect the Dodgers to pull away comfortably in the middle frames and cover the wide margin. Value. Check.
Pick: Dodgers -2.5 (+105)
Player Prop Pick
Tonight’s smartest angle on a Colorado hitter is backing Troy Johnston in the combined stats prop market.
Over his last 10 games, Johnston is batting a stout .323 with a .787 OPS, compiling 10 hits, five runs, and five RBIs. That production averages out to exactly 2.0 Hits + Runs + RBIs per contest. Against Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan – who gives up crooked numbers when opposing hitters manage to make contact – Johnston’s approach plays very well. He has actively found the gaps lately, logging multiple doubles during this recent stretch to tilt the ice in his favor.
Targeting this combined market provides multiple avenues to cash the ticket without relying entirely on RBI opportunities from a struggling lineup. Back Johnston to stay productive tonight.
Pick: Troy Johnston Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.