The Rockies are limping into this one, having dropped 15 of their last 20 games to secure a 90-loss season for the fifth consecutive year. They took a 6-1 loss to these same Yankees yesterday, scratching across just five hits and a lone home run; it’s been a familiar script for a team struggling to put together complete games or keep opponents off the board. The front office knows this is a long-term rebuild under Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes, but the immediate reality on the field remains harsh. First pitch for today’s matchup is set for 5:05 p.m. MT.
Meanwhile, New York is playing high-level baseball, having won 13 of their last 20 games. Slugger Aaron Judge returned to the lineup this week, bringing even more gravity to a roster that hit three home runs yesterday and played clean defense. They are capitalizing on mistakes, sitting in stark contrast to a Colorado squad trying to find traction on the road.
To compete this afternoon, Colorado has to find a way to quiet New York’s bats and keep the ball in the yard. The most realistic path to a win requires a steady start from the rotation to avoid an early deficit, giving the offense a chance to string together timely hits before the Yankees can separate.
The Breakdown
Ryan Feltner squares off against Max Fried today in a pitching matchup that leans heavily toward the home team. Feltner has struggled to miss bats or limit damage recently. Over his last 10 appearances, he is allowing nearly 13 hits per nine innings. Opponents are making constant, hard contact, which has driven his ERA near 8.00 during that span. Worse for Colorado, Feltner is barely averaging five innings per start right now, forcing an overworked bullpen to cover far too many frames.
Fried offers a much steadier presence for New York. Over his last 10 outings, the left-hander is racking up over nine strikeouts per nine innings and holding a 1.18 WHIP. He consistently limits baserunners and gives his offense a comfortable environment to operate.
The key storyline today is whether Colorado’s lineup can keep pace with a surging Yankees offense. New York has been punishing baseballs over its last 10 games, plating 6.0 runs per contest and generating constant traffic on the bases. Colorado has been adequate at the plate, scoring just over four runs a game recently, but adequate rarely beats New York in the Bronx.
For the Rockies to steal a win, Feltner has to induce weak contact and navigate the early innings efficiently. If he can give Colorado six competitive frames and keep the ball in the yard, the Rockies’ bats will need to manufacture runs against Fried to pull off the road upset.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Yankees -317 / Rockies +253
- Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (-136) / Rockies +1.5 (+114)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -106 / Under -114)
Our Pick
The Rockies are severely outmatched today in the Bronx. With Ryan Feltner struggling to pitch deep into games, this matchup will likely fall into the hands of a Colorado bullpen that holds a 4.79 ERA on the season. That spells trouble against a Yankees lineup built to punish mistakes.
New York is playing clean, dominant baseball and should have no problem putting runs on the board early against an exhausted relief corps. There is too much firepower on the New York side, and not enough resistance from Colorado’s pitching staff, to expect a tight game.
Rather than laying heavy juice on the moneyline, the run line offers the best value here. Caesars has the Yankees -1.5 at -136, a reasonable price given the talent disparity between these two clubs. If you want to back New York, check out the Caesars promo for new users.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-136)
Player Prop Pick
I’m looking at a Colorado bat this afternoon who has a surprisingly strong track record against New York’s starter.
Yankees southpaw Max Fried has been tough on left-handed hitters all year, holding them to a .152 batting average. However, Rockies outfielder Jake McCarthy appears to be the exception. In eight career plate appearances against Fried, McCarthy has four hits, boasting a .500 batting average and slugging percentage.
He also brings good form into this matchup. Over his last 10 games, McCarthy is hitting .310, averaging 1.3 hits per contest, and providing a reliable spark for the Colorado offense.
Given his history against Fried and his recent production at the plate, backing McCarthy is a smart value play. Caesars has his total bases line set at 1.5, with the over offering an appealing +144 payout. For more Rockies news, be sure to check out the rest of our coverage.
Pick: Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 Total Bases (+144)
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.