Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates: Game preview and best bets for Thursday
The Colorado Rockies wrap up their series at PNC Park today against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Rockies found a pulse yesterday, snapping a three-game skid with a much-needed 10-4 win. Despite sitting well below the .500 mark at 17-26, yesterday’s victory gives them a legitimate shot to salvage a .500 road trip if they can grab this afternoon’s finale. The offense did some real damage, but this team has a bad habit of taking one step forward and two steps back.
Across the diamond, the Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 23-20 and are in a bit of a rut themselves, dropping three of their last five. They haven’t been dominant at home, and their recent inconsistency creates an opening for a Colorado team that showed yesterday it can put up big numbers when the offense gets going early.
To steal this series finale today, the Rockies have to keep their foot on the gas. The challenge is proving yesterday wasn’t an anomaly.
The Breakdown
Chase Dollander takes the mound for the Rockies on Thursday, and he’s given this team a fighting chance every time he’s taken the ball. Dollander has been a reliable bright spot in a dark season, pitching to a respectable 3.35 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season while racking up 9.84 strikeouts per nine innings. He throws strikes, misses bats, and doesn’t often beat himself with free passes.
Opposing him is Mason Montgomery, who the Pirates are deploying as an opener today. Montgomery has been dealing in the early going, with 10.1 scoreless innings over his last 10 appearances with a microscopic 0.77 WHIP. He is going to throw heat early, trying to bridge the gap to the bulk of Pittsburgh’s pitching staff while keeping Colorado’s bats quiet.
The true X-factor today is whether the Rockies can sustain any offensive momentum against Montgomery and whatever parade of relievers follows him out of the bullpen. Over their last 10 games, Colorado is scraping together 4.30 runs per contest with a middling .694 team OPS. Contrast that with Pittsburgh, who has managed 5.10 runs and a .739 OPS over their own last 10. If the Pirates offense wakes up, the Rockies don’t have the firepower right now to win a track meet. Colorado’s hitters have to force the issue right out of the gate.
For the Rockies to fly home happy, the formula isn’t complicated. Dollander needs to keep pounding the zone, working his swing-and-miss stuff, and keeping the Pirates off the basepaths. On the offensive side, Colorado has to work counts, rattle Montgomery early, and Pittsburgh into making bullpen decisions they don’t want to make in the first few innings. Getting on the board first is the only way the Rockies dictate the pace of this one.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates -177 / Colorado Rockies +149
- Run Line: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+123) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-147)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -115 / Under -104)
Our Pick
Nobody wants to bet against the hometown team, but buying into the Rockies on the road after one good offensive showing feels like walking into a trap. Colorado is 17-26 for a reason. They lack the consistency to string together complete games, especially away from the friendly confines of Coors Field.
Pittsburgh is a solid team with better depth and more reliable pitching. Even though Dollander is a great young arm for the Rockies, asking him to out-duel a fully rested, optimized Pirates bullpen day is a tall order. The Pirates have a clear offensive edge right now, and their lineup is built to exploit mistakes. Laying heavy juice like -177 on the moneyline is bad business for anybody’s bankroll, so we pivot to the run line to find some actual value. The Pirates have the tools to control this afternoon’s game from the middle innings onward, capitalizing on Colorado’s late-game pitching vulnerabilities to win by a couple of runs.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+123)
Player Prop Pick
If you want a reason to watch the Rockies today, look no further than Mickey Moniak. He has been the lone reliable power threat in this lineup, and he’s still swinging a very hot bat.
Over his last 10 games, Moniak is hitting .316 with a massive .789 slugging percentage. He just celebrated his 28th birthday yesterday by falling a single shy of the cycle, driving in five runs, and launching his 12th home run of the year. He has tallied four homers, two doubles, and two triples in his last 10 appearances alone. Moniak is seeing the baseball incredibly well, consistently finding gaps and hitting the ball hard. You don’t need him to string together multiple singles to cash a total bases prop; one swing of the bat gets the job done. The books are giving us a fair number for a guy who has been leading the National League in slugging. Back him to keep doing damage.
Pick: Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Total Bases
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.