Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates: Game preview and best bets for Tuesday
The Rockies continue their road trip in PNC Park on Tuesday, riding a two-game losing streak after dropping the final two games of their series in Philadelphia. The Rockies have dropped four consecutive series, making this East Coast swing feel like an uphill climb.
Waiting for them is a Pittsburgh team bringing a completely different energy to the ballpark. The Pirates are hovering above the .500 mark at 22-19, and are looking to extend a three-game home winning streak. They just survived a West Coast trip and are playing with confidence. For a reeling Colorado team, facing a steady Pittsburgh group means there is zero margin for error.
To compete in this one, the Rockies must first match Pittsburgh’s fundamental execution. If Colorado can manufacture some early run support instead of immediately playing from behind, they’ll have a path to victory on Tuesday.
The Breakdown
Today’s pitching matchup puts Michael Lorenzen on the mound for the Rockies against Pittsburgh’s ace, Paul Skenes. Lorenzen has consistently been getting hit hard, carrying an ugly 6.92 ERA and letting his WHIP balloon to 1.90. He is surrendering far too much contact, allowing over 14 hits per nine innings during this stretch. The only silver lining is his career success against Pittsburgh, but historical numbers won’t pitch him out of any jams.
On the flip side, Skenes is dealing. The reigning NL Cy Young winner just tossed eight scoreless innings against Arizona and owns a sparkling 0.71 WHIP through 42.0 frames this season. He is missing bats constantly, striking out nearly ten batters per nine innings, while giving up fewer than five hits per.
The deciding factor is whether the Rockies’ lineup can tread water against a surging Pirates offense while trying to somehow crack Skenes. Over their last 10 games, Pittsburgh has been swinging hot bats, pushing across 5.80 runs a night with an .800 team OPS. The Rockies, however, are hovering around 4.20 runs a game with a mediocre .696 OPS over that same window. Colorado has to figure out a way to string together productive at-bats against a guy who rarely walks anyone.
For Colorado to steal a win tonight, Lorenzen has to limit the early traffic and actually pitch deep into the game. He cannot afford to let a hot Pittsburgh lineup gain momentum in the opening frames. From there, the Rockies’ offense must put the ball in play, avoid the easy strikeouts Skenes thrives on, and capitalize the second the Pirates’ starter leaves a pitch over the plate.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates -342 | Colorado Rockies +268
- Run Line: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (-146) | Colorado Rockies +1.5 (+121)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -113 | Under -107)
Our Pick
It can be hard to back a heavy favorite, but the starting pitching discrepancy in this matchup is way too glaring to ignore. The Pirates are finding their rhythm, while the Rockies are stumbling through a tough stretch of baseball. Colorado is putting a struggling Lorenzen up against a dominant force in Paul Skenes, and that math rarely works out for the underdog.
Pittsburgh is going to make Lorenzen work from the very first pitch. If Colorado falls behind early, they lack the offensive firepower to climb out of a deep hole against an arm of Skenes’ caliber. The moneyline price on Pittsburgh is far too steep to play straight up, but taking them to cover the run line offers solid value. The Rockies are visibly outmatched in this one, and the Pirates have the bats to pull away.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (-146)
Player Prop Pick
With Lorenzen struggling to keep opposing hitters off the basepaths lately, fading the Rockies’ starter is the smartest angle for this matchup. That means that Pirates infielder Brandon Lowe has a good chance to continue his recent tear at the plate.
Over his last 10 games, Lowe has been swinging one of the hottest bats in the league. He is hitting .306 with a massive 1.117 OPS and a .694 slugging percentage. He is averaging over a hit a game during that stretch — and doing serious damage when he makes contact.
Given Lorenzen’s recent tendency to surrender plenty of hits and base traffic, Lowe sits in a prime spot to capitalize today. He has the power and the current form to clear this number with a single extra-base hit; an appealing opportunity against a highly vulnerable pitcher.
Pick: Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.