The Rockies are slogging through a difficult stretch, having dropped eight of their last 10 games. They sit well below .500 on the season, looking exactly like a team stuck in deep evaluation mode. They did manage a 3-1 win in their last matchup against Washington, snapping a brutal losing streak that included setting a franchise mark for consecutive home losses. They’ll try to string together back-to-back victories this afternoon, with first pitch set for 4:45 p.m. MT on COLR.
The Nationals aren’t in a much better place right now. Washington has also lost eight of its last 10 games and is sliding further below the .500 mark as they assess their own young core. After dealing away established veterans at the deadline, they are emphasizing a more disciplined approach to avoid falling behind early. Both clubs have had a tough time finding any sustained momentum over the last few weeks, meaning Colorado is facing an opponent dealing with the exact same developmental growing pains.
If the Rockies want to take this one, they need to repeat what worked in the series opener: clean defense and finding a few key hits. Against a Washington team that is also scuffling, avoiding self-inflicted errors and keeping the margin tight is the most realistic path to a win today.
The Breakdown
Today’s pitching matchup features Tanner Gordon for the Rockies squaring off against right-hander Matt Waldron for the Nationals.
For Colorado, Gordon has struggled to pitch deep into games during his recent stretch. Over his last 44.1 innings pitched, he is averaging just 4.67 innings per start. He demonstrates excellent control—issuing just 1.62 walks per nine innings—but he remains incredibly susceptible to contact, surrendering a staggering 11.77 hits per nine. Gordon has to find a way to miss more bats if he wants to survive against a major-league lineup, even one as cold as Washington’s.
On the other side, Waldron gets the nod for the Nationals in what is officially his team debut. Washington just claimed the knuckleballer off waivers from Toronto, leaving his current form and usage a bit of a mystery. He has operated as a starter, opener, and late-inning reliever this year, so the Rockies’ hitters will have to adjust on the fly to an unpredictable pitch mix.
The true X-factor today comes down to which struggling lineup wakes up first. Over their last 10 games, the Nationals have gone completely cold, hitting an abysmal .196 as a team and averaging just 3.3 runs per contest. Their .597 OPS during that span shows a distinct lack of power and on-base ability. The Rockies haven’t fared much better, batting .217 and averaging 4.1 runs over their own 10-game stretch. With both offenses searching for answers, the team that manages to string together consecutive hits or find a rare gap will hold a massive advantage.
For the Rockies to pull out a victory, it starts with Gordon pitching efficiently enough to complete at least five or six innings, sparing a Colorado bullpen that holds a 4.84 ERA. From there, the lineup needs to manufacture early runs and put the pressure on a Washington offense that lacks the firepower to mount a major comeback.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Washington Nationals -125 / Colorado Rockies +113
- Run Line: Washington Nationals -1.5 (+157) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 9 (Over -107 / Under -112)
Our Pick
If there is one thing to trust this afternoon, it’s that neither of these teams inspires much confidence. However, when evaluating two slumping lineups, the edge usually goes to the squad with slightly better pitching depth. The Nationals fit that bill here.
Once Colorado starter Tanner Gordon inevitably exits early based on his recent track record, he hands the ball to a Rockies bullpen carrying a rough 4.84 ERA. Washington’s relievers haven’t been elite, but their 4.77 bullpen ERA gives them a slight late-game advantage in a contest where runs will be at a premium. With the Rockies on the road and consistently failing to string together offensive pressure, Washington is better positioned to scrape by and secure a tight victory.
Caesars is showing the line at -125 for the Nationals moneyline, making it a reasonable spot to back the home team. If you’re looking to lay some juice on this one, check out the Caesars promo for new users to find value. It won’t be a pretty brand of baseball, but Washington gets it done.
Pick: Washington Nationals -125
Player Prop Pick
Rockies outfielder Jake McCarthy has a massive situational edge this afternoon against Nationals starter Matt Waldron.
Waldron has been highly vulnerable to left-handed hitting this season, surrendering a 1.041 OPS and five home runs in just 96 plate appearances against lefties. McCarthy, who has injected much-needed speed and versatility into Colorado’s lineup since arriving in an offseason trade, has historically taken full advantage of this particular matchup. In his career against the knuckleballer, McCarthy is a remarkable 6-for-12 with three doubles and a .750 slugging percentage.
While his bat hasn’t been red-hot over the last 10 games, McCarthy is still averaging exactly one hit per contest during that stretch. Given the glaring platoon advantage and his established comfort level tracking Waldron’s unpredictable pitches, backing McCarthy to find the outfield grass is a smart strategic investment. Caesars has the line set at 1.5 total bases with +109 odds, providing excellent value for a player with a proven track record against today’s starter.
Pick: Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 Total Bases (+109)
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.