The Rockies are limping toward the end of a difficult season, and staring down the near-certainty of a fourth consecutive 100-loss campaign. Sitting at 57-99 overall, Colorado has struggled heavily in recent weeks, dropping eight of their last 10 games and 15 of their last 20. They’re coming off a quiet offensive performance, falling 2-1 to the Mariners on Sunday after managing just five hits and a single run, courtesy of a Hunter Goodman homer. First pitch for tonight’s matchup at Coors Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. MT.
The Diamondbacks arrive in Denver sporting an 82-74 record and fighting for their playoff lives. Arizona has played .500 baseball over their last 20 outings and dropped six of their last 10, though they recently managed a pair of comeback wins against the Yankees. Manager Torey Lovullo knows his job may hinge on getting this roster to the postseason, making the Diamondbacks a highly motivated club looking to secure their footing against a struggling Colorado squad.
If the Rockies want to compete tonight, they have to string some rallies together instead of relying on isolated solo shots. Maintaining the error-free defense they showed against Seattle will keep things close, but finding consistent contact with runners on base is the only realistic path to pulling off a win here.
The Breakdown
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Kyle Freeland on the mound for the Rockies against Michael Soroka for the Diamondbacks. This is a big one for the hometown crowd. The Denver native is making what could be his final start at Coors Field in a Rockies uniform, and he has explicitly stated his intention to soak in every moment. On the mound, Freeland has shown excellent control with only 1.8 walks per nine innings over his last 10 appearances, but the long ball has been a major issue. He has allowed 1.76 home runs per nine in that 56.1-inning stretch, inflating his ERA. He faces Soroka, who has been effective at keeping runners off base lately, boasting a 1.04 WHIP and striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings over his last 10 outings. However, Soroka struggles to pitch deep, averaging just under five innings per start.
The X-factor will be Colorado’s ability to capitalize on their base runners. Over their last 10 games, the Rockies’ offense has actually made consistent contact, hitting .281 as a team and racking up nearly 10 hits per contest. Yet, they are only translating that into 4.1 runs per game. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are doing real damage with their hits, posting an .800 team OPS while averaging 4.7 runs and 1.5 homers per game over their last 10. If Soroka gets pulled early, Colorado will face an Arizona bullpen that has been solid with a 3.86 ERA, whereas the Rockies’ relievers sit at a 4.86 ERA.
For the Rockies to secure a win tonight, Freeland must keep the ball in the yard, and hopefully, pitch deep into the game. Suppressing Arizona’s power threats will go a long way in keeping the game manageable. Offensively, Colorado’s lineup has to find ways to drive in the runners they are consistently putting on base. Converting empty hits into timely, run-scoring rallies is the only way to keep pace.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Colorado Rockies +163 | Arizona Diamondbacks -196
- Run Line: Colorado Rockies +1.5 (+104) | Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-124)
- Over/Under: 11 (Over -102 | Under -118)
Our Pick
IIt’s hard to find a reason to back the Rockies tonight. Colorado is struggling through a miserable 2-8 stretch over their last 10 games, and their bullpen continues to bleed runs late in games.
Arizona has not been perfect lately, going 4-6 over their last 10 contests, but they are clearly the better club, and they’re playing for postseason survival. With Kyle Freeland giving up too many home runs recently and an untrustworthy Colorado relief corps backing him up, the Diamondbacks should be able to generate plenty of offense in the altitude of Coors Field against a team playing out the string.
Caesars is offering the Diamondbacks on the run line at -124. If you are backing Arizona to win comfortably, be sure to take advantage of the Caesars promo for new users. Lay the runs and trust the superior, highly motivated lineup to pull away late.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-124)
Player Prop Pick
When looking for value in the Rockies’ lineup, Connor Norby once again stands out as a prime target tonight. The 26-year-old infielder was acquired in August and has been hot over his last 10 games, posting a .385 batting average alongside a .590 slugging percentage and a stellar 1.032 OPS. He is consistently finding the gaps and stringing together productive at-bats, averaging 1.5 hits and 0.5 doubles per contest during this recent stretch.
Facing a starter in Michael Soroka who averages less than five innings per start, Norby’s current form makes him capable of doing damage early before getting looks at the Arizona bullpen. DraftKings currently has Norby’s total bases line set at 1.5, offering appealing +122 odds on the over. Given how well he has been tracking the ball, banking on him to rack up a couple of singles or an extra-base knock is a strong strategic investment. To stay updated on the promising young hitters emerging in Denver, be sure to follow the latest Rockies news.
Pick: Connor Norby Over 1.5 Total Bases (+122)
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.