The Colorado Rockies showed signs of life and beat the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday, as they’ve gone from unwatchable last season to a run-of-the-mill non-contender. It’s an improvement, no doubt, but they’ve still dropped six of their last ten and 12 of their last 20 games.
On the bright side, the Diamondbacks’ trajectory over the last month looks even worse, losing 13 of their last 20 contests.
The Breakdown
Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for the Rockies, and across his 44.0 innings of work this season, Lorenzen has been battered to the tune of a 6.55 ERA and a painful 1.84 WHIP. Opposing hitters are hitting an incredible .347 average against him. No one can consistently survive Coors Field putting that much traffic on the bases. On the flip side, Arizona sends Michael Soroka to the hill, and the right-hander holds a respectable 3.53 ERA and is missing bats to the tune of a 9.76 strikeout-per-nine rate. He also limits the deep ball, allowing fewer than one home run per nine innings.
Over their last 10 games, the Rockies have looked competent at the dish, scratching out 4.10 runs per game with a .678 OPS. Arizona, meanwhile, has gone ice-cold. During that same 10-game window, the Diamondbacks are limping to the finish line with just 3.10 runs a night and a dreadful .586 team OPS. Colorado actually holds the edge at the plate right now, even if their overall season numbers look similar.
Getting a win this afternoon rests squarely on Lorenzen’s right arm. He has to attack the zone, pitch to contact without leaving pitches over the heart of the plate, and avoid the massive innings that have derailed his recent starts. If he keeps Arizona’s slumping lineup quiet and keeps the bases relatively clean, the Rockies’ bats have enough life to grind out a few runs against Soroka and notch a victory.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks -153 / Colorado Rockies +127
- Run Line: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+101) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Our Pick
As much as you want to back the home team catching plus money, it’s hard to find real value in the Rockies at +127 given their starting pitching. Rockies starters currently carry a 5.48 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP for the season. You can’t expect a lineup with a .710 OPS to constantly dig themselves out of early holes.
Arizona is scuffling under the .500 mark, but their rotation is far more reliable. Diamondbacks starters post a 4.46 ERA, a full run better than what Colorado sends out there. Even with Arizona’s bats running cold lately, they will not need a massive offensive breakout to do damage against Lorenzen and this vulnerable Rockies staff. Colorado fans want to see wins, but smart bettors fade the Rockies’ rotation until they prove they can get enough consecutive outs.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -153
Player Prop Pick
We’re doing it again. Rockies first baseman TJ Rumfield is turning in competitive at-bats every time he steps to the plate. He is averaging 1.10 hits per contest ovre his last 10 games, batting .297 with an .882 OPS. Arizona’s Michael Soroka gets his share of strikeouts, but he also fills the strike zone and allows balls in play. Rumfield is swinging a hot bat and should see plenty of pitches to hit in this daytime clash. He hit the over on this bet yesterday, and backing him for only one base knock still feels like the smartest player investment on the board.
Pick: TJ Rumfield Over 0.5 Hits