The Colorado Rockies enter Monday night sitting well below the .500 mark, trying to find some sustained traction. They have dropped six of their last ten contests, including an 8-6 defeat to the Pittsburgh Pirates to close their weekend series, but they did win that series with narrow victories over the Pirates on Friday and Saturday. It’s yet another evaluation year at 20th and Blake, but this club still finds ways to make noise at home. They’re hitting the ball well right now, even if the win-loss record doesn’t always reflect the underlying effort.
Boston arrives in Denver facing an even more frustrating reality. The high-dollar Red Sox are floundering near the bottom of the standings, having lost 12 of their last 20 games, and unlike the Rockies, their offense looks entirely lost. Neither team is playing solid baseball right now, making this series a battle between two rosters trying to stop the bleeding and find some positive momentum before the trade deadline forces major decisions.
To take this one, Colorado has to press the advantage against a slumping Boston lineup while capitalizing on the altitude. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. MT at Coors Field. If the Rockies get a competent outing from their starter and manufacture runs early, they have a path to a home victory, and an opportunity to send the legion of ‘Sawx‘ fans that will pile into Coors Field home unhappy.
The Breakdown
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Ryan Feltner taking the mound for Colorado against Boston’s Jake Bennett. The most concerning trend with Feltner isn’t his overall run prevention – it’s his inability to work deep into games. Over his last nine starts, Feltner is averaging just 4.6 innings per outing; constantly working out of jams and letting pitch counts balloon, which has resulted in a 5.05 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP during that span. Worse, he is serving up 1.54 home runs per nine innings. Bennett operates on a slightly longer leash but faces similar issues keeping runs off the board. Across his last four starts, the Boston pitcher is averaging roughly five innings an appearance with a 4.79 ERA. He has, however, done an impressive job keeping the ball in the yard, yielding just 0.44 home runs per nine over that recent stretch.
That home-run suppression will be tested immediately by a Colorado lineup that is hitting the cover off the baseball. Put aside the spotty record – the Rockies’ bats are hot. Over their last ten games, Colorado is averaging a whopping 6.20 runs and hitting exactly two homers per contest. They are slugging .526 as a unit during that stretch; they have the firepower to force Bennett into stressful, high-leverage situations in the early going.
For the Rockies to win tonight, Feltner first has to figure out how to navigate past the fifth inning. Colorado’s bullpen drags an abysmal 5.13 ERA into this contest, and asking that unit to cover four or five frames at Coors Field is a dangerous proposition. If Feltner can stretch his start through the sixth and hand a lead to the back end of the pen, Colorado’s surging offense should provide enough run support to secure the win.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Colorado Rockies (+105) / Boston Red Sox (-128)
- Run Line: Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-139) / Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 11.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Our Pick
When you combine the high altitude of Coors Field with two starting pitchers who consistently struggle to work deep into games, the recipe almost always calls for crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Tonight’s matchup fits that profile. Neither Feltner nor Bennett is pitching deep into games right now, meaning we are going to see plenty of both bullpens. While Boston has a capable relief corps, the Rockies’ bullpen owns that awful 5.13 ERA and routinely surrenders late leads; they simply can’t be counted on.
Factor in a Colorado offense that is slugging .526 and averaging over six runs a game recently, and the conditions are right for an offensive shootout. Both pitching staffs will likely be taxed by the middle innings, setting up a situation where the bats stay active from the first pitch to the final out. DraftKings is showing the total at 11.5. That is always a high bar to clear in Denver, but this game has all the structural components of a track meet. If you are taking the over, remember to take advantage of the DraftKings promo for new users before laying some juice.
Pick: Over 11.5 (-115)
Player Prop Pick
Colorado outfielder Jake McCarthy is locked in right now, making his total bases prop a clear value target tonight. Over his last ten games, McCarthy is batting an excellent .353 with an .889 OPS. He is hitting the ball hard, finding gaps, and getting on base with consistency.
That recent form lines up well against a vulnerable Boston pitching staff. Red Sox starter Jake Bennett surrenders a .770 OPS to right-handed batters, and McCarthy has crushed right-handed pitching this season, posting an .800 OPS across 178 plate appearances in those matchups. Because Bennett struggles to pitch deep into games, McCarthy will also get multiple looks at right-handed arms out of the Boston bullpen late in the contest.
The recent betting trends back this up entirely. McCarthy has eclipsed 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games, averaging 2.8 total bases per contest over that window. DraftKings has the line sitting at 1.5, and with the over offering appealing +106 odds, backing his hot streak is a smart angle.
Pick: Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 Total Bases
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.