After toppling the visiting Chicago Cubs in their series-opener to halt a 4-game skid on Tuesday night, the Colorado Rockies look to build upon that momentum Wednesday night at Coors Field. first pitch hits at 6:40 p.m. MT tonight.
Chicago is limping into Denver looking lost. A hot start to the season had the Cubs on everyone’s radar, but a brutal recent slide has them in freefall. They have dropped seven of their last ten matchups and managed only five wins across their last 20 games, including last night’s loss. Like Colorado, Chicago is struggling to put complete games together, often watching early leads evaporate or failing to generate enough offense to stay competitive.
For the Rockies, taking advantage of a reeling opponent means forcing the issue early. Neither team can fully trust their bullpens, so the team that forces their opponent to use their relievers first will have a massive advantage in tonight’s matchup.
The Breakdown
Michael Lorenzen takes the ball again for Colorado tonight. He’s struggled to find any sustained rhythm this season, sporting an ugly 7.91 ERA and a bloated 1.95 WHIP. He has to locate his pitches and limit the free passes against a Chicago lineup that, while sputtering, will not hesitate to punish mistakes left over the middle of the plate. The Cubs counter with Shota Imanaga. Imanaga brings high-end strikeout stuff to the mound; fanning 8.10 batters per nine innings with a tight 1.15 WHIP over his 60.0 frames so far this year, but the issue for Imanaga has been run prevention. When hitters elevate the ball against him, it usually does damage, which explains his 5.25 ERA on the season.
The deciding factor tonight is whether the Rockies’ bats can exploit Imanaga’s run prevention issues early in the game. Over their last 10 games, Colorado’s lineup has legitimately produced, averaging a robust 6.20 runs per contest with an .858 team OPS. They are hitting the ball hard, manufacturing high-danger chances, and turning over the lineup consistently. Contrast that with Chicago’s stagnant offense, which has scratched across just 3.40 runs per game with a .705 OPS over their own 10-game stretch. If Colorado maintains this offensive pace, they hold a distinct advantage at the plate.
Winning this game requires a two-pronged approach. Lorenzen has to establish command of the strike zone early and keep Chicago off balance to avoid crooked numbers in the opening frames. On the other side, the Rockies’ offense must lean heavily into their recent surge, grinding out at-bats to drive up Imanaga’s pitch count. If Lorenzen can deliver a functional, competitive start and the bats stay hot, Colorado can secure another victory at home.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Colorado Rockies +145 / Chicago Cubs -175
- Run Line: Colorado Rockies +1.5 (+100) / Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 12 (Over -105 / Under -115)
Our Pick
Tonight’s matchup at Coors Field points toward plenty of runs, but the real betting value lies in the Chicago Cubs covering the run line. DraftKings has the Cubs -1.5 at -120, and that is our highest-confidence play.
The Rockies have swung the bats well lately, but trusting them to keep a game within a single run over nine innings requires faith in their bullpen. Colorado’s relievers are lugging around a 5.24 bullpen ERA this year, turning the late innings into a constant sweat for bettors. Even if Lorenzen keeps the game tight through the fifth or sixth inning – and he hasn’t done that with any consistency all season long – the back third of this game heavily favors Chicago. The Cubs feature a much more reliable bullpen with a 3.51 ERA. Combine that late-game pitching disparity with Colorado’s sloppy defense – 40 errors on the year compared to Chicago’s 28 – and the Rockies offer far too many avenues for the Cubs to extend a late lead. We’ll lay the juice on the visitors to win this by a couple of runs.
Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120)
Player Prop Pick
For tonight’s action, we are targeting the total bases market and looking straight at Hunter Goodman. Taking the over offers a clean, data-backed edge.
While several guys in this lineup are hitting the ball well, Goodman’s recent power surge demands your attention. Over his last 10 games, he has mashed six (yes, six) home runs and posted a massive .838 slugging percentage. He is hunting fastballs, driving them with authority, and making multiple bases on a single swing a highly probable outcome.
The matchup only sweetens the deal. While Imanaga can pile up strikeouts, he is surrendering hard contact and giving up 2.40 home runs per nine innings recently. Goodman is in elite form, facing a pitcher that’s highly susceptible to the long ball. Lay the juice and expect the Rockies slugger to clear this number.
Pick: Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 Total Bases
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.