The Colorado Rockies have played competitive baseball over their last 20 games, going 9-11 over that span. While they have dropped three of their last five contests overall, they did just grab a much-needed 6-3 victory over these same Marlins yesterday. They will try to keep things moving in the right direction and win a consecutive game in this afternoon’s matchup. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. MT.
Miami is playing solid baseball, even after taking a loss to Colorado yesterday. The Marlins are 46-41 overall, and they have been stringing together victories efficiently. They have won 14 of their last 20 games and seven of their last 10. Compared to the Rockies’ up-and-down performances, Miami operates with a lot of momentum and a clear identity, finding ways to consistently stack wins as they push through the middle of the season.
For the Rockies to compete today, they need to prove they can string together consecutive solid games against a tough opponent. The realistic path is to keep the Marlins in check early, avoid the crooked numbers, and manufacture enough offense at home to keep from playing from behind.
The Breakdown
This afternoon’s pitching matchup features Michael Lorenzen taking the mound for Colorado against Miami right-hander Ryan Gusto.
The biggest issue for Lorenzen lately has been volume on the basepaths. Over his last 10 starts, he is struggling to pitch deep into games, averaging just 4.77 innings per outing. The underlying problem is that he is surrendering a massive 13.03 hits per nine innings over that same stretch. That sheer amount of traffic has predictably hurt him, resulting in an inflated 7.36 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. When you let that many runners get on base at Coors Field, the damage usually compounds quickly.
Gusto comes into today with his own severe workload limitations. Over his recent appearances totaling 21.1 innings, the Marlins starter is averaging a brief 3.67 innings per outing. While he manages to strike out 8.44 batters per nine innings in that window, he still holds a 5.06 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He does not go deep, meaning the Rockies will see the Miami bullpen early.
The defining factor today will be how these offenses handle two starters who rarely pitch into the late innings. Both lineups have been productive recently. Over their last 10 games, the Rockies are putting up a robust 5.3 runs and 9.4 hits per game. Miami is right there with them, batting .282 as a team and scoring 5.2 runs per contest over their own last 10 games.
For Colorado to win, Lorenzen must find a way to navigate past the fifth inning and drastically cut down on the hits allowed. If he can stall Miami’s bats, the Rockies’ offense needs to jump on Gusto in the first few frames. Because Gusto will not last long, Colorado needs an early lead before dealing with the Marlins’ relievers. Building an early cushion takes the pressure off a vulnerable Rockies bullpen.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Miami Marlins -128 / Colorado Rockies +105
- Run Line: Miami Marlins -1.5 (+118) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-143)
- Over/Under: 12 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Our Pick
With both starting pitchers struggling to pitch deep into games recently, this one will almost certainly be decided by the bullpens. Let’s be honest — that’s terrible news for the Rockies.
Colorado’s relief corps has been shaky all year, stumbling to a 5.23 bullpen ERA. Meanwhile, Miami boasts a reliable pen that holds a 3.39 ERA. The Marlins know how to close out games, and if this turns into a battle of attrition in the later innings, they hold a massive advantage in run prevention. The Rockies’ offense can put up numbers at home, but asking an inconsistent bullpen to hold off a hot Miami lineup in the thin air is a very tall order.
BetMGM is showing the line at -128 for the Marlins on the moneyline, which actually feels like a bargain given the glaring disparity in relief pitching and Miami’s recent momentum. If you are backing the visitors today, take advantage of the BetMGM promo code available for new users to lay the juice comfortably. The math favors the Marlins late in the game.
Pick: Miami Marlins -128
Player Prop Pick
For this afternoon’s matchup, we are looking at the pitching side and backing Colorado starter Michael Lorenzen to rack up some early punchouts.
While Lorenzen has struggled to pitch deep into games recently, his strikeout prop line has been adjusted down to a very approachable number that offers clear value. BetMGM has his line set at just 3.5 strikeouts. Lorenzen has exceeded 3.5 strikeouts in three of his last four outings, averaging 4.5 punchouts per game in that span.
Furthermore, he historically has Miami’s number in this specific department. Across his last three starts against the Marlins, Lorenzen has comfortably cleared this line every single time, averaging an impressive 6.33 strikeouts per contest. Even if Miami manages to chase him by the fifth inning, landing four strikeouts is highly attainable before he is forced to hand the ball over to the bullpen.
If you are looking for more betting angles and the latest Rockies news, keep following our coverage all season.
Pick: Michael Lorenzen Over 3.5 Strikeouts
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.