Following a Friday night that saw the Rockies’ bullpen give away what could have been a series-opening win over the Brewers – not once, but twice – Colorado looks to rebound at home on Saturday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. MT at Coors Field.

Milwaukee has been rolling over the past few weeks, taking 14 of their last 20 and seven of their last 10 matchups, including their extra-inning win over Colorado last night. Now sitting comfortably atop the NL Central, the resilient, consistent Brewers look the part of a World Series contender.

To compete tonight, the Rockies need clean early innings on the mound to keep the pressure off a taxed bullpen. If they can keep the game tight in the early going, the natural Coors Field chaos always provides a realistic path to an upset.

The Breakdown

The Rockies hadn’t announced a starting pitcher for Saturday, and appear likely to go with a ‘bullpen game.’ There may be method to that madness, however, because whoever ends up taking the mound will have his work cut out for him. Milwaukee is countering with right-hander Jacob Misiorowski, and the 24-year-old has been dominant. Across his 60.0 innings of work this season, he holds a minuscule 1.50 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. His ability to miss bats is top-tier, evidenced by an elite 13.50 strikeouts per nine innings. Finding a vulnerability here is a tall task. He limits damage, yielding just 0.3 home runs per nine. Colorado’s lineup will have to find a way to make contact and put early traffic on the basepaths against the young flamethrower.

Believe it or not, over their last 10 games, Colorado has actually out-hit Milwaukee, averaging a robust 6.0 runs per game with an .814 OPS. The Brewers have plated 5.9 runs per game with a .729 OPS over that same stretch. If the Rockies can leverage the altitude to jump on Misiorowski early, they can claim momentum and dictate the pace.

For Colorado to steal a victory tonight, the TBA starter needs to navigate a deep Brewers lineup efficiently and limit the damage in the early frames. Handing a deficit over to this Rockies bullpen early is a death sentence. Offensively, the lineup must continue producing at its recent six-runs-per-game clip. Get to Misiorowski before he settles into a rhythm. Period. That’s the only real formula for an upset.

Odds & Lines

• Moneyline: Colorado Rockies +220 / Milwaukee Brewers -278
• Run Line: Colorado Rockies +2.5 (-102) / Milwaukee Brewers -2.5 (-118)
• Over/Under: 10.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)

Our Pick

It is tough to back the Rockies tonight, even with the high altitude at Coors Field potentially providing an offensive boost. The Brewers are playing vastly superior baseball right now, bringing a 38-23 record and genuine momentum into Denver.

Without an announced starting pitcher for Colorado, relying on a Rockies bullpen that sports a rough 5.06 ERA is a massive gamble against a capable Milwaukee offense. Conversely, the Brewers can confidently lean on a relief corps with a stellar 3.34 bullpen ERA to lock down the late innings once Misiorowski exits the game.

Given the massive discrepancy on the mound, taking the Brewers on the moneyline requires laying far too much juice for almost no return on investment. The smart play is to find value backing Milwaukee to cover the spread. They have the offensive firepower to exploit a taxed Colorado pitching staff and the late-inning relievers to prevent a backdoor cover in the thin air. BetMGM is offering the Brewers on the -2.5 run line at -118, which is the most logical angle for this lopsided matchup.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -2.5 (-118)

Player Prop Pick

While the Rockies face a stiff test in Jacob Misiorowski tonight, outfielder Jake McCarthy presents a compelling target in the prop market. Since his arrival, McCarthy has established himself as one of Colorado’s most reliable bats. Over his last 10 games, he is posting a .310 batting average alongside a robust .548 slugging percentage. He is averaging 1.3 hits and 0.4 doubles per game during this stretch, proving his ability to rack up extra bases and consistently find the gaps.

Even against high-end pitching, McCarthy’s bat-to-ball skills and recent gap power make him a strong candidate to clear his total bases number. He is confidently driving the ball, making his line a high-value angle for a Rockies lineup desperate to manufacture runs at Coors Field. Given his recent hot streak, backing McCarthy is the smartest player prop play on the board.

Pick: Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 Total Bases

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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.