The Colorado Rockies may have found a cure what ails them – the San Francisco Giants. After winning the first two games of this series, the Rockies can climb out of the National League’s cellar with a win today, and put the Giants there instead. Despite the recent victories, the Rockies have still dropped 14 of its last 20 games, but Sunday’s 1:10 p.m. MT start at Coors Field gives them another opportunity to gain traction after what’s been a mostly awful month of baseball.
The Giants appear to be in complete freefall, losing five straight games and eight of their last ten.
The Rockies need to jump on the reeling Giants early on Sunday; taking advantage of San Francisco’s current slide by grabbing the lead and forcing a reeling San Fran squad to play from behind.
The Breakdown
The Rockies will send Tanner Gordon to the mound this afternoon. Across his starts this season, Gordon has struggled to limit traffic on the basepaths. He carries a 5.85 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, surrendering an elevated 11.41 hits per nine innings. The Giants will counter with veteran left-hander Robbie Ray. Ray still brings solid swing-and-miss stuff to the table, averaging 8.27 strikeouts per nine innings over his recent 53.1 frames, but he is tends to give up hard hits when batters make contact. He enters this one sporting a 4.73 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, weighed down by an alarming 2.02 home runs allowed per nine innings and a 4.89 walk rate.
The primary X-factor today is whether the Rockies can exploit Ray’s control issues and tendency to give up the long ball. Looking at the last 10 games, neither lineup has been overwhelming, but the Giants hold a clear statistical edge. San Francisco has averaged 4.60 runs per game with a .777 OPS over that stretch. Meanwhile, Colorado’s bats have been fairly quiet, managing just 3.90 runs per game with a .675 OPS. Still, Ray’s struggles with the home run ball could provide the exact spark the Rockies need to tilt the ice in the thin Denver air.
For Colorado to secure a victory today, Tanner Gordon must set the tone early by commanding the zone and pitching efficiently to avoid early deficits. If Gordon can navigate the Giants’ lineup and minimize the damage, it keeps the game within striking distance. From there, the Rockies’ lineup needs to show patience against Ray, draw walks, and punish the mistakes he frequently leaves over the plate. Forcing Ray into high-stress situations early is their clearest path to success.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: San Francisco Giants -125 | Colorado Rockies +105
- Run Line: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+120) | Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-143)
- Over/Under: 11 (Over -115 | Under -105)
Our Pick
This afternoon’s matchup features two bottom-dwelling teams, making it tough to trust either side on the moneyline. Instead, the smartest investment is to target the total.
DraftKings has the Over 11 set at -115, and in a game featuring these two starting pitchers at Coors Field, that number offers solid value. Robbie Ray has been highly susceptible to the long ball, and the altitude will only amplify those mistakes. On the other side, Tanner Gordon has been allowing constant traffic on the basepaths. If both offenses can cash in on early opportunities, this game turns into a track meet. One early mistake is all it takes to open the floodgates.
Even if the starters manage to navigate the early frames, the late innings should provide plenty of scoring. Colorado’s bullpen carries a bloated 4.59 ERA into today’s contest, offering very little resistance once Gordon exits. Expect plenty of runs as both lineups take out their recent frustrations on vulnerable pitching staffs.
Pick: Over 11 (-115)
Player Prop Pick
While Tanner Gordon’s recent strikeout numbers make his prop market tempting, and Willi Castro’s batting average keeps him in the conversation, the clearest edge this afternoon belongs to Ezequiel Tovar.
We are targeting Tovar in the total bases market. The Rockies infielder has been swinging a heavy bat, slugging .538 with three home runs over his last 10 games. Today, he gets a highly favorable matchup against the veteran Ray. Although Ray can still miss bats, his command issues have led to that shocking 2.02 home runs allowed per nine innings. When hitters make contact against Ray, it frequently results in extra-base damage, and Coors Field’s altitude and cavernous outfield will only compound those mistakes.
Tovar’s power stroke aligns perfectly with Ray’s tendency to serve up loud contact. We are willing to lay some juice here, because the situational matchup dictates it. Expect Tovar to find the gaps or leave the yard entirely to clear this number. Value. Found.
Pick: Ezequiel Tovar Over 1.5 Total Bases
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.