The Colorado Rockies enter tonight’s matchup trying to find some positive takeaways in the late stages of a rebuilding season. They have dropped 14 of their last 20 games, a rough patch highlighted by a frustrating 7-6 defeat to these same Cardinals on Friday. Despite a solid offensive performance that featured 10 hits and a pair of home runs, Colorado couldn’t hold onto a late lead. They will look to get back in the win column when first pitch is thrown at 6:10 p.m. MT tonight.
The St. Louis Cardinals arrive playing steady, albeit unspectacular, baseball as they chase a National League wild-card spot. They are sitting exactly at the .500 mark for the year and have played true to that record recently, splitting both their last 10 and last 20 games evenly. While Colorado has struggled to string together wins, St. Louis has managed to tread water and capitalize on their opponents’ mistakes. They showed exactly that kind of late-inning resilience by pushing across three runs in the top of the ninth to steal Friday’s series opener.
To compete tonight, the Rockies must replicate their recent offensive success while securing the back end of the bullpen. The challenge lies in putting away a St. Louis squad that just proved it can strike late. Colorado’s best path to victory involves building an early cushion and getting clean innings from their relievers to avoid another ninth-inning collapse.
The Breakdown
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Rockies right-hander Mason Adams making his Coors Field debut against Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore. Adams, a rookie acquired at the trade deadline, has shown impressive swing-and-miss stuff over his first two road starts with a 10.00 K/9 rate. However, the right-hander has struggled to get deep into games, averaging just 4.5 innings per outing so far.
On the other side, Liberatore has been a strikeout machine, but remains highly vulnerable to hard contact. Across his last 10 starts, the lefty has racked up 10.73 strikeouts per nine innings over 52.0 frames. Yet, that ability to miss bats hasn’t translated to run prevention. Liberatore has pitched to a 5.54 ERA in that span, allowing a .276 opponent batting average and 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
The Rockies’ recent patience at the plate may be the key. Over their last 10 games, Colorado’s offense has consistently created traffic on the basepaths, drawing walks at a strong 10.0% clip while racking up 9.4 hits per contest. If they can force Liberatore into deep counts and elevate his pitch count early, they can avoid his strikeout stuff and get into the St. Louis bullpen.
For Colorado to pull off a victory tonight, the formula begins with Adams keeping his poise in altitude. He needs to pitch efficiently and work his way past the fifth inning to protect the bullpen. If Adams provides some length and the lineup continues its trend of putting early pressure on Liberatore, Colorado can build a comfortable cushion and claim the victory.
Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals -123 / Colorado Rockies +105
- Run Line: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+123) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-147)
- Over/Under: 11 (Over -100 / Under -121)
Our Pick
With both starting pitchers presenting clear vulnerabilities, this game shapes up nicely for those who prefer high-scoring affairs. Liberatore gives up plenty of hard contact and home runs, while Adams hasn’t yet proven he can pitch deep into games, especially in his first start at Coors Field. That means both managers will likely rely heavily on their relief pitching.
That is a glaring issue for both dugouts. The Cardinals enter tonight with a 4.51 bullpen ERA, and the Rockies’ relievers have yielded a 4.70 bullpen ERA. Given Colorado’s recent knack for putting traffic on the bases and St. Louis’s ability to manufacture runs late, 11 runs feels like a very reachable mark in altitude.
The consensus is showing the total at 11, and that is the play here. If you are signing up, make sure to use a BetMGM promo code to take advantage of their promotional offer for new users. Expect early runs and late bullpen struggles.
Pick: Over 11 (-100)
Player Prop Pick
If you want to back a standout performer in the Colorado lineup right now, Adael Amador looks like solid choice. The 23-year-old infielder has been productive since his September call-up, and his total bases market offers real value for tonight’s contest.
Over his last 10 games, Amador has been the hottest hitter on the roster, slashing .381 with a .762 slugging percentage and a massive 1.242 OPS. He is consistently driving the ball and generating extra-base hits. The betting trends strongly support him here as well; Amador has exceeded 1.5 total bases in three of his last four games overall, while also clearing that same benchmark in three of his last four appearances at Coors Field.
DraftKings has his prop set at 1.5, offering excellent plus-money with the over at +143. Liberatore has been giving up plenty of traffic and hard contact recently, setting up a favorable matchup for the young switch-hitter. For more Rockies news and analysis throughout the remainder of the season, be sure to check back regularly.
Pick: Adael Amador Over 1.5 Total Bases (+143)
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.