As anticipation builds for former President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech scheduled for tonight, betting markets have taken a keen interest in predicting exactly what topics he’ll cover. Kalshi, a popular prediction market platform, has released data showing bettors’ expectations on the phrases Trump is most likely to use in his address to a joint session of Congress.
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Popular Kalshi Markets for Trump’s Speech Tonight
According to Kalshi’s market data, bettors have identified several phrases and topics that Trump is likely to include. Leading the list is the mention of “God,” specifically four or more times, with bettors assigning it a 63% probability. This indicates an expectation for Trump to invoke religious themes prominently during his address.
Interestingly, the slogan “Make America Healthy Again,” a play on Trump’s signature “Make America Great Again” phrase, also has a strong showing at 60%, reflecting the expectations of a healthcare overhaul by RFK Jr.
Other notable Trump speech markets include:
- Mentioning “Panama,” with a 57% likelihood, potentially referencing the recent BlackRock acquisition.
- The phrase “Drill Baby Drill,” standing at 56%, indicates expectations of commentary on energy policies, particularly oil and gas.
- References to “Crypto / Bitcoin,” at 53%, highlight the market’s anticipation around the strategic crypto reserve announced over the weekend.
- The somewhat controversial term “Hell” surged to 52%, likely anticipating strong rhetoric or criticisms.
- Lastly, mentions of “LA / Los Angeles” are hovering at a tight 51%, suggesting the recent LA fires will be a topic mentioned.
These betting markets reflect public and bettor speculation about Trump’s strategic messaging. As always, prediction markets offer fascinating insights into collective expectations and the themes perceived as politically resonant or strategically significant.
Tonight’s speech will ultimately reveal how accurately the betting markets have gauged Trump’s focus areas, offering viewers and participants a unique lens through which to watch the address.