There’s only been two times in my writing career (the Nikola Jokic era) when I picked against the Denver Nuggets in a playoff series.

The first was the Bubble against the Los Angeles Lakers. After coming back from 3-1 twice and facing a team that had their number in the Western Conference Finals, I thought Denver’s time was up. I didn’t want to believe it, but the Nuggets were exhausted, and the Lakers were the team of destiny that year.

The second was against the Golden State Warriors in the first round in 2022. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. were sidelined, and the Warriors had an elite formula to take advantage of Denver’s lacking perimeter and interior defense. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and even Jordan Poole cooked. In retrospect, that last one hurts a bit more.

For the first time since those matchups, this is the closest I’ve come to picking against the Nuggets. Even though they’re the defending champions. Perhaps even because they’re the defending champions. The Minnesota Timberwolves will be the toughest matchup the Nuggets have faced since at least the Bubble Lakers and maybe beyond that.

So, am I going to pick Minnesota?

No.

The Nuggets are coming off a five-game series against the Lakers that was tougher and easier than that number in various ways. The series was mentally taxing just as much as it was physically. Murray told me after the Game 5 win on Monday that the Lakers made them think a lot from game to game, quarter to quarter, minute to minute.

“It’s just one of those games where we had to stay locked in. They just make you think so much. Even when you’re winning, or you’re winning games, it’s just still a lot of details that go into it.”

And yet, the series only went five games. The starters played heavy minutes, but they only played five games worth of minutes. While the Nuggets starters averaged 195.8 total minutes across the Lakers playoff series, the New York Knicks starters, who just finished off the Philadelphia 76ers on their home floor last night, averaged 228.2 total minutes in the series. Those minutes add up, especially as benches shorten even more in the playoffs.

The Timberwolves? They polished off a despicable Phoenix Suns team in a four-game sweep. Their starters totaled 136.2 minutes across the series. They’re about as fresh as possible.

Minnesota is also out for revenge after last year. They fought hard to get into the playoffs, but an unfortunate injury to Naz Reid and entirely controllable injury to Jaden McDaniels prevented them from being healthy at the right time. They lost the series in five games, but not before they earned Denver’s respect with how hard they competed and how they challenged Denver up until the end.

Can we take anything from last year’s series? Sure, McDaniels and Reid didn’t play, but there has to be something to focus in on. Right?

Aaron Gordon.

The Nuggets forward/backup center has become an essential piece of the Nuggets machine. He connects the starting lineup together on both ends of the floor, capitalizing on the attention taken by the other four floor spacers and creators. Gordon works the dunker spot, but offensive glass, and the transition game to perfection. He also takes on plenty of tough defensive assignments for Denver, often the ones nobody else can take on.

During the first round series against Minnesota last year, Gordon averaged 13.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game, but here’s the kicker: he shot 50.0% from the field, 33.3% from three, and a whopping 89.5% from the free throw line. Gordon was locked in and did everything the Nuggets asked him to do, and that role was exceptionally difficult while being guarded by Rudy Gobert so frequently.

This year, the assignment is much the same with the starters. Gordon will roam the dunker spot, get out in transition, and attempt to take advantage when the T’Wolves don’t guard him closely enough. Gordon shot 1-of-10 from three in this year’s first round series against the Lakers. The T’Wolves will give him the same opportunities, and they will be mostly wide open, late shot clock shots.

Where the series is different for Gordon is on the defensive end.

Karl-Anthony Towns is playing pretty great basketball. He put up about the same numbers per game in the Suns sweep as he did against the Nuggets last year. The big difference? Last year, he posted 46-25-75 shooting splits, a poor showing for a second option. This year? 53-53-89 splits. Towns shot the cover off the ball against a Suns team that didn’t have a lot of answers for him.

(On an aside, the Nuggets drew the third fewest charges per game in the NBA this regular season, so shoutout Jeff Green for putting his body on the line.)

Aaron Gordon is about as good of an answer as the Nuggets can ask for, but Towns isn’t the only player he will have to guard. Anthony Edwards is currently on fire, and I fear that it’s a fire Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will struggle to contain by himself. During the regular season, Edwards shot 17-of-28 from the field (60.9%) with Caldwell-Pope guarding him. He shot 4-of-9 from three (44.4%) and 7-of-7 from the line (100%). Edwards had a 10-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio as well. In other words, Caldwell-Pope got cooked.

Gordon will be tasked with guarding Edwards at various times throughout the series, but definitely not in the second unit. That’s when his responsibilities change again and he’s asked the guard the opposing team’s backup center. It could end up being all three of Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and the actual backup center Naz Reid. All three will be difficult covers for a number of reasons, and there will be plenty of times when two of the three share the floor together.

The dirty little secret about the T’Wolves-Suns series wasn’t about the matchup between Edwards and the Suns’ Little Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. It was about the glass. The T’Wolves crushed the Suns on the offensive boards, grabbing nearly 40% of their own misses in halfcourt situations. That means that they got a second chance on two out of every five shots, which is how they were the top offense in the entire NBA playoffs so far.

“If we don’t rebound, then we won’t get out and run, and that’s when we’re going to have a hard time scoring,” Nuggets head coach shared after Thursday’s practice. “They’re too good defensively, 1st in defensive rating, 1st in points per game allowed, 1st in FG% defense. If we think we’re just going to walk the ball up and execute against that, that’s not going to go in our favor.

Gordon is 6’8″, and he’s about as small as a power forward can be to nominally guard centers on the glass these days. He’s going to have to play even bigger when he’s the second unit center. The Nuggets showed minimal interest in throwing out DeAndre Jordan (1 game) and Zeke Nnaji (0 games) against the Lakers. It will be interesting to see if Malone begins the series with an actual center in the rotation or if he will stick with the small ball and play Gordon.

This is why Gordon is so important, especially defensively. As incredible as the T’Wolves defense is, that seems like more of a problem for Jokic, Murray, and Porter to solve. The Nuggets top scoring trio averaged 28.2, 23.6, and 22.8 points per game respectively, and only Murray struggled with his efficiency. If the Nuggets can account for nearly 75 points per game between those three, then they’re already well set up for the series.

How to do that, when faced with Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Rudy Gobert, will be a challenge. The Nuggets have always solved problems though, and I have a feeling this problem is easier to solve that people might believe. Three-point shooting will be a key for Jokic, Murray, and Porter, and I trust those guys to be ready for the opportunities when they arrive.

But back to Gordon. He will have to do some things offensively. He can’t just be a statue in the corner or dunker spot, and nobody expects him to be. How the Nuggets move him around in screening actions for teammates, sudden dives to the rim, and offensive rebounding position will be incredibly important. He could be one of the main keys in putting the T’Wolves into foul trouble by simply hustling in the paint.

It’s the defense that concerns me more. Gordon’s a great defender, one of the best defenders a team can have at their disposal given his variety of skill sets. That being said, he’s less equipped to face Towns or Edwards than people might hope, and it could be his own foul trouble that puts the Nuggets in a quandary.

What happens if the T’Wolves scheme Gordon out of the offense? What happens if he’s in foul trouble and must sit for a prolonged period of time?  It will likely be Peyton Watson asked to step up in his place. Fortunately for Watson, he’s a good option in this series against Edwards in theory, and that might allow Porter to slide to Towns and Caldwell-Pope to guard Mike Conley (a pull-up three-point killer in his own right) in the process. The Nuggets need Watson here. He averaged just 12.0 minutes per game against the Lakers, and I expect that number to go up if Watson stays ready for the moment.

I don’t expect this to be as much of a Reggie Jackson series, especially if Murray’s good to go. The Nuggets also could experiment with their no-point guard lineups when Murray needs a break to keep as many defenders on the floor as possible. That’s an earned opportunity though, and one or all of Braun, Watson, or Justin Holiday has to be prepared for that situation.

It’s pretty easy to see that the T’Wolves bench has an advantage heading into this series. Their starters can slide to a variety of roles within a game, Alexander-Walker averaged over 30 minutes a night against the Suns, and Reid quite literally won Sixth Man of the Year. The T’Wolves trust their other units more than Denver trusts theirs. Michael Malone will have to find a group he likes. Perhaps it includes Gordon, and Murray, and Porter, like it did in the first round. Denver has to close that bench gap, or else their starters have to consistently win their minutes. With Jokic, anything is possible.

I am picking the Denver Nuggets in 7 games.

While realizing that much of the commentary I just shared is decidedly against Denver: the truth of what will happen is somewhere in the middle. Yes, the Timberwolves will score on Denver. Yes, they will guard Denver extremely well. The Nuggets will do those things too.

It’s really hard to repeat as an NBA champion. It hasn’t happened in each of the last five years, and it’s pretty jarring to see where the journey came to an end for each of those teams the following year:

  • 2017-18 Golden State Warriors – Lost in NBA Finals in 2019
  • 2018-19 Toronto Raptors – Lost in second round in 2020
  • 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers – Lost in first round in 2021
  • 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks – Lost in second round in 2022
  • 2021-22 Golden State Warriors – Lost in second round in 2023

The Kevin Durant Warriors are the lone exception to what has become a parity filled NBA in the last half decade. The second round is around the time when injuries start to pile up though, and it happened to each of those recent champions from what I recall. It’s physically taxing to go deep in the playoffs year after year.

Will the Nuggets break the trend? Jokic looks great. Porter looks phenomenal. Gordon seems ready. Murray and KCP? We will see.

If Murray can handle 40 minutes a night in this series and raise his efficiency, I think the Nuggets take the series. It will be a dogfight until the end though, as I’ve predicted Nuggets in a Game 7.

If only the Nuggets had a dynamic duo that handled pressure well…