The Denver Broncos are 4-2. They’re the 28th best offense (323 yards/game) and the third best defense (295 yards/game) in the league. That’s what the numbers tell us.
But what if we dig deeper?
The latest evolution in sports coverage has been the rise of advanced analytics. The “Moneyball” revolution started in baseball, made its way into basketball and is now grabbing a foothold in football. With sites like Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders, we’re beginning to measure success in entirely new ways.
So what are the advanced analytics saying?
As a whole, when looking at Football Outsiders’ DVOA (explained in detail here), the Broncos are about what you’d expect after six weeks. Overall, they’re the ninth best team in the NFL, with the 23rd most-efficient offense and fourth most-efficient defense. For reference, the Broncos finished last season as the eighth best team in terms of DVOA, with the 25th most-efficient offense and the No. 1 defense.
Heading into Week 7, Football Outsiders had the Broncos with a 60.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, the fourth-highest percentage in the conference. They did, though, have the Chiefs (37.8%) with a higher likelihood of winning the division than the Broncos (34.3%).
In terms of Super Bowl chances, Denver has the eighth-highest championship odds (4.7%), fourth in the AFC.
On a player-by-player basis, the best place to look is Pro Football Focus, which gives every single player a grade based off a myriad of measurements. Quickly, here are the top-five and bottom-five graded starters on the Denver Broncos’ roster:
Top Five:
1. Von Miller (90.2)
2. Chris Harris Jr. (87.9)
3. Matt Paradis (87.6)
4. Aqib Talib (86.9)
5. Andy Janovich (84.4)
Bottom Five:
1. Donald Stephenson (41.9)
2. Jared Crick (46.5)
3. Trevor Siemian (53.9)
4. Demaryius Thomas (54.3)
5. Sylvester Williams (54.4)
Miller, Harris and Talib aren’t surprises at all in the top five, but Paradis may be. A closer look, though, and it’s clear that he’s one of the few bright spots on the Denver Broncos offense, particularly their offensive line.
On the other side of the coin, seeing DT in the bottom five is certainly validation for those who claim the Broncos paid him too much money — Emmanuel Sanders (79.4) has outperformed DT all season.
Aside from those 10, here are a few more takeaways from Pro Football Focus’ grades:
- While most people are calling for Devontae Booker to take over at running back, he (55.1) is actually graded out lower than C.J. Anderson (60.5) through six weeks.
- While Siemian’s 53.9 grade is only good enough to rank him as the 25th best quarterback in the league, he’s still seven spots higher than Brock Osweiler (43.2).
- Not to pile on Thomas, but his 54.3 grade is good for 87th in the league, right between Dallas’ Brice Butler and Buffalo’s Marquise Goodwin, not exactly the company the Broncos want him keeping.
- Matt Paradis (87.6) and Von Miller (90.2) both lead their positions, while Chris Harris (87.9) and Aqib Talib (86.9) are third and fourth amongst cornerbacks
- Aside from Paradis, the Denver Broncos offensive line has been miserable. Russell Okung (38th amongst tackles) and Michael Schofield (46th amongst guards) have been the Broncos’ best tackle/guard, which says something. Donald Stevenson (69th), Ty Sambrailo (74th) and Max Garcia (54th) have been worse than bad — maybe the Broncos should consider Joe Thomas?