It’s clear so far that the Denver Nuggets season hasn’t gone fully according to plan.

A 12-10 record through 22 games doesn’t sound that bad, but it has placed the Nuggets seventh in the Western Conference. At this moment, the Nuggets are tied with four other teams ranked ninth to 12th in the conference with 12 total wins. They’re a stone’s throw from dropping out of the play-in tournament entirely.

Of course, the Nuggets are also a stone’s throw away from the second spot in the West too. The Nuggets have 10 losses, but the second seeded Memphis Grizzlies only have eight losses themselves. That’s a margin that the Nuggets can make up in a good week.

That’s the power of parity in the NBA right now, especially in the West. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder appear to be out of reach over the long haul in the standings with an 18-5 record, but that was always the expectation for me. The Thunder were always going to challenge for 60+ wins. The Nuggets never were, and that’s okay. They don’t have to win 60 games to win a championship.

There are other things they have to do though. The first: play better, more consistent basketball.

Right now, the Nuggets are 12th in the NBA in point differential on Cleaning the Glass, just above average at +2.7 points per 100 possessions. They rank sixth in offensive rating, though clearly outside of the upper echelon currently inhabited by the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, and Cleveland Cavaliers. Somehow, the Nuggets rank 14th in defensive rating despite having several ugly defensive games in the last few weeks. They’re the ninth ranked defense in the Western Conference though, which should emphasize just how bad the East has been.

Unfortunately, the Nuggets don’t get to play in the East. They have to be better. They have to be more consistent on that end of the floor if they want to go anywhere.

Denver’s halfcourt defense has actually been pretty good. When the Nuggets score and are able to set their defense, they do well. When Jokic is on the floor, the Nuggets are bale to set their defense, and while the defense with Jokic out there is slightly worse, it’s not a big problem because Denver’s not trying to guard in transition the entire time.

When Jokic is off the floor, the Nuggets halfcourt offensive rating is an absurdly low 83.1 points per 100 possessions on first shot attempts. Often, the Nuggets take a bad shot or commit a turnover and get caught in defensive transition too often. With Jokic off the floor, the Nuggets face 19.2% of plays in defensive transition and allow 139.4 points per 100 transition plays. That’s not good. It might feel like a marginal difference, but it’s not.

So, better offense with Jokic off the floor will almost certainly help Denver’s defense in those moments too.

The last thing is to get healthier and get the starters playing consistently well, particularly Jamal Murray. He’s currently averaging 17.8 points and 6.2 assists per game. The five players with the closest per game averages to those numbers this season are:

  • Dennis Schroder – 18.6 points and 6.5 assists
  • Alperen Sengun – 18.5 points and 5.3 assists
  • Derrick White – 17.3 points and 4.9 assists
  • Jimmy Butler – 19.0 points and 4.3 assists
  • Coby White – 18.1 points and 4.7 assists
  • Austin Reaves – 16.1 points and 4.8 assists

For what it’s worth, those were the 43rd, 35th, 26th, 63rd, and 77th ranked players on the Ringer’s Top 100 list updated in late November. Schroder wasn’t even ranked! That’s the company Murray’s keeping right now from a production standpoint, and his efficiency is currently worse than all of those guys. It’s not the company Murray was supposed to keep this year, and he has a long way to go to get back where he should be.

Fortunately, Murray’s generally a riser when it comes to scoring efficiency and production as the year goes on.

His early season usage rate and true shooting number are very low. Murray’s often getting out of the way for Jokic to score and not necessarily knowing when to jump in with his own scoring opportunities, particularly while in a shooting slump. Perhaps a couple games off and some extended rest while the NBA Cup finalizes will do him good.

There are still things the Nuggets need to figure out beyond Murray of course. Russell Westbrook has been far better as a starter than a bench player this season. The Nuggets can’t really bench Murray though, nor should they bench Christian Braun. The starters for Denver have been great. Murray, Braun, Porter, Gordon, and Jokic have a +12.5 Net Rating in 164 minutes. It’s the third best lineup in the NBA among the 14 to play at least 150 minutes. The problems begin for Denver when they start to sub. Whether it’s Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, or others, the Nuggets haven’t found a rhythm with those lineups yet, no matter whether Jokic is on the floor at the end of the first quarter or not.

Then, there’s the backup center horror show. The Nuggets have played four players genuine minutes at backup center this year: Dario Saric, DeAndre Jordan, Zeke Nnaji, and Aaron Gordon. None have been good, save for the power forward.

The above numbers are via Cleaning the Glass, meaning they eliminate garbage time and focus on what’s happening in the minutes that matter. The long and short of it is that DeAndre Jordan might be Denver’s best backup center option, and that is wild. Zeke Nnaji was supposed to be able to handle this role last year. He failed and has failed ever since. Dario Saric was brought in and paid extra money to help solve that problem. He’s been bad outside of games he’s started in place of Jokic.

Denver can’t overtax Aaron Gordon at backup center either. he’s already dealing with injuries, and the Nuggets need him healthy for the playoffs.

Bring on PJ Hall minutes with haste.

If the Nuggets are, somehow, able to stabilize their backup center position a bit, they have almost everything else they need in theory. They have an elite starting lineup. They have the best player in the world. They have a bench playmaker in Westbrook, a shooter in Strawther, and a defender in Watson. There’s not much more they SHOULD need to start playing great basketball with this group in particular.

Something still feels off. Whether that feeling goes away after an extended break and some practices is to be determined. A lot hangs on Jamal Murray simply playing better ball. Maybe Denver rolls a Nat 20 and one of their backup centers figures it out for a few months.

I still have mu doubts, but there’s a pathway here for Denver to be better. They have to be willing to travel down that path though. It might not be what they want to do, but the correct path is rarely the easy one.