It wasn’t that long ago that the Denver Broncos had just beat the New England Patriots on a snowy Sunday night in Denver, putting the No. 1 seed in their hands. Today, after two straight losses, the playoffs aren’t even a guarantee.

While most of the NFL’s playoff picture seems to be locked into place, the Broncos are the one moving part that could go a long way towards deciding who’s in and who’s out. With two weeks left in the season, there are scenarios that place Denver anywhere from the No. 1 seed in the AFC to out of the playoffs entirely.

Here’s a breakdown of what would have to happen for the Broncos in each scenario:

Win the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs:

This one’s actually very simple: If the Broncos win their final two games and the Patriots lose theirs, the Broncos are in.

Unfortunately, it’s probably more likely that Peyton Manning plays for another 10 seasons than it is that the Patriots lose to the Jets and Dolphins. And as you’ll see later, it might actually be in the Broncos best interests if the Patriots just go ahead and put the Jets out of their misery.

Win the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye:

Even after everything the Broncos have been through, they still control their destiny when it comes to the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff race; win out and it’s theirs.

We’ve known that this Monday Night matchup against the Bengals was going to be a big one for months now, but after Sunday’s collapse against the Steelers, it will essentially decide who gets the second bye. If the Bengals win, they clinch it, and if the Broncos win, they’ll just have to beat the Chargers the next week.

Win the AFC West:

Two months ago, the 6-0 Denver Broncos had a five game lead over the Kansas City Chiefs for first place in the AFC West. Today, the Chiefs are just one game back of the Broncos and have a legitimate opportunity to win the division.

If the Chiefs win out — home games against the Browns and Raiders remain — and the Broncos drop one of their final two games, then they’ll take home the AFC West crown. Given that the Chiefs are on an eight-game win streak and the Broncos have lost four of their last seven, that is a very real possibility.

Finish as one of the AFC’s two wild cards:

If the Broncos lose on Monday, and the Chiefs win out, the AFC West will go to Kansas City, and Denver will just have to hope they can hang onto a wild card. Their two challengers will be the Steelers (crap …) and the Jets. Both teams are 9-5 and would hold a tiebreaker over the Broncos; meaning, one of them has to lose if Denver is to grab a wild card.

For the Steelers, their final two games are against the Ravens and Browns; I’m going to go ahead and mark those off as wins, given they have a combined seven victories this season.

For the Jets, they’ll finish their season against the Patriots and Bills; that’s more reassuring.

If the Patriots can just take care of the Jets this weekend, the Broncos should be all but assured a playoff spot; that is, as long as they can win one of their final two games. If the Broncos were to lose both games, the only way they could back into the playoffs with four straight losses would be if either the Steelers or Jets lost their final games, too.

Broncos miss the playoffs:

The code red scenario …

If the Broncos lose against the Bengals on Monday, and both the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers win out, Denver will have missed the playoffs following a 7-0 start.

If the Broncos lose both of their final two games against the Bengals and Chargers, and the Jets and Steelers win at least one game, they’re out.

While any realistic scenario where the Broncos miss the playoffs largely hinges on the Jets beating the Patriots, it’s not impossible; we’ve seen crazier things happen.