At one point in time, the seven different mock draft boards on NFL.com predicted the Broncos would be selecting Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch with the No. 31 pick. Now, there is hardly any consensus as to what direction Denver will go with the last pick of the first round of Thursday’s NFL Draft.
According to data compiled by SB Nation, the player that appears most frequently (20.4 percent) on current mock draft boards for the Broncos is Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook, with Lynch and Mississippi State defensive lineman Chris Jones tied for second (12.2 percent, each).
Mike Luper – aka Sports Guy Mike – and his co-host, former Broncos running back Chris Brewer, have their eye on the No. 4 guy on the list, however – Ole Miss defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche.
Nkemdiche, who went to Denver on 10.2 percent of mock drafts, was a top prospect coming out of high school, but has struggled during his time with the Rebels to live up to that potential. Off-field issues cost him a bowl game start this year and his on-field performance didn’t put up the consistent eye-popping numbers expected from someone with his physical skill set.
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel conducted a poll of scouts and executives that labeled him the defensive lineman most likely to be a bust. Nkemdiche won (by way of losing) in what they called “a landslide.”
Still, his physical skills are undeniable, as was the case when he almost single-handedly dismantled the Alabama offense in a rare Ole Miss win over the Crimson Tide. That’s the player Luper and Brewer think the Broncos should be hoping to land.
“If somehow Nkemdiche can stay on the board and fall that far, you’d have to get him,” Luper said.
Brewer thinks Denver would be even more aggressive than that.
“If he falls into the 20s, watch us move up,” he said.
John Elway has never selected an offensive player with his first pick in the draft, so even though the mock drafts predict one of those two quaterbacks as going to Denver, Elway’s draft history suggests he’ll stick with defense.
“[Nkemdiche]’s on here [at] 10 percent – the other one that comes in at 12 percent is defensive lineman Chris Jones and six percent is A’Shawn Robinson, defensive tackle from Alabama,” Luper said about a possible third option for the Broncos to replace Malik Jackson.
Even with all those stats to point in the direction of a quarterback or defensive lineman, the largest percentage (38.8 percent) had an “other” player going to Denver.
Luper and Brewer may want Nkemdiche above all the “others,” but as Luper said, the draft is “a guessing game, unless you’re in that war room.”
But with the last pick in the first round, even being in the war room doesn’t eliminate the guess work, as Brewer points out. It only takes one crazy move to throw all the predictions out the window.
Perhaps that’s why both Brewer and Luper are willing to throw the predictions that Nkemdiche is going to be a bust right out the window right along with them.
Listen to the full discussion, plus some “Dancing with the Stars” scenarios for Von Miller, in the podcast below…
https://soundcloud.com/milehighsports/4-26-16-robert-nkemdiche-falls-to-broncos-at-31-sports-guy-mike-plays-hypotheticals
Catch The Sports Guy Mike Show every Monday – Friday from 9a-11a on Mile High Sports AM 1340 or stream live any time for the best local coverage of Colorado sports from Denver’s biggest lineup.
