On Feb. 10, 1990, my brother looked like a prophet. Prior to Mike Tyson stepping into the ring against Buster Douglas in Tokyo, he boldly proclaimed that the 42-to-1 underdog would beat the undefeated champ; it was a preposterous proposition, one that made everyone in the room chuckle. Ten rounds later, no one was laughing, as Iron Mike fell in one of the most shocking knockouts in boxing history.
If that were the whole story, it would be pretty impressive; everybody would need to check in with my older sibling prior to their next trip to Vegas, getting a long shot or two to wager on at the sportsbook. But that would be overlooking one crucial detail, the caveat that blows the amazing prognostication out of the water.
My brother predicted Tyson to lose every fight. He picked Carl Williams, Frank Bruno and Michael Spinks to beat the champ. He was convinced that Tony Tubbs, Larry Holmes and Tyrell Biggs had a shot. And he had a hunch that Tony Tucker, Pinklon Thomas and Trevor Berbick were going to end get the better of Iron Mike. That was his standard pre-fight forecast; he always went against Tyson.
As a result, he was bound to be right eventually. At some point, unless the second coming of Rocky Marciano occurred, the champ was going to lose; and when that happened, my brother would be the one guy in the room who could say that he had predicted it before the two fighters ever stepped in the ring.
Today, the Denver media is essentially pulling the same stunt. Almost as a group, they are lining up to proclaim that Peyton Manning is washed up, making sure they’re on the record with their prediction about the 39-year-old quarterback. It’s all an attempt to position themselves for prime told-ya-so boasts down the road if they turn out to be correct.
At some point, the cast of naysayers will be right. After all, even Hall of Fame QBs eventually break down, wear out and can’t play anymore; it’s happened to some of the all-time greats, from Johnny Unitas to Joe Namath to Dan Marino.
But it’s not happening in 2015 to Manning. This is not the year in which No. 18 crumbles.
Sure, the quarterback’s preseason performance hasn’t been stellar; in two games, he’s completed 22 out of 35 passes for just 176 yards, throwing zero touchdowns and one interception along the way. And perhaps most damning of all, he’s led Denver’s offense to a grand total of just six points in roughly three quarters worth of work.
But that’s not a huge cause for concern. Why? Because it’s pretty standard for the greatest passer in the history of the game.
During the 2013 preseason, Manning threw for 176 yards and led the Broncos to a total of seven points during the team’s first two preseason games; those are nearly identical numbers to what the quarterback has posted in the same amount of time this year. And that less-than-stellar showing had zero correlation to the regular season, as Manning went on to have a season for the ages.
That’s not to say that the QB is going to throw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns in 2015. Nor does it suggest that he’ll lead Denver to an NFL-record 606 points across the 16-game slate. But it does point out that preseason performances are pretty meaningless, especially for veteran players; they don’t equate to similar results in the regular season.
If they did, it would be a great time to go all-in on Pittsburgh’s Landry Jones; the quarterback leads the NFL in preseason passing yards with 577. It’d also be smart to bet big on EJ Manuel, since Buffalo’s QB is tied for the league lead (along with Jones and Kansas City’s Chase Daniel) with four touchdown passes.
Nobody is going to make those leaps, however; there’s not a sane person around who expects either of those signal callers to have big seasons in 2015. But in Denver, similarly ridiculous proclamations are being made because of a couple of dicey performances during meaningless exhibitions.
It doesn’t matter that Manning is coming off a season in which he threw for 4,727 yards (the second-highest single-season total of his career) and 39 touchdowns (a number he’s only surpassed two other times). Instead, doubters are focusing on 35 throws that no one will remember after Labor Day; that’s how so-called analysts can become part of the story.
Of course, this is the same batch of yahoos who said the quarterback was finished when the Broncos started 2-3 in 2012; they went on to win 11 straight games and capture the No. 1 seed in the AFC. It’s also the same group that said Manning couldn’t play in the cold after Denver lost to Baltimore in the playoffs; that’s a narrative the QB told them to stick where the sun doesn’t shine on a chilly day the next season. And it’s the same people who lament over every wobbler No. 18 chucks; a quick review of his highlights as a Colt will show that he’s never spun a thing of beauty.
They keep trying to beat everyone else to the punch, wanting to be the first one to see the end of the line for a great quarterback. And time after time, they’ve had to eat a huge helping of crow, as Manning keeps proving them wrong, typically in dramatic fashion.
This season isn’t going to be any different. He’s going to silence the doubters once again. When all is said and done, Manning will have thrown for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, and the Broncos will score more than 25 points per game.
The only thing that can slow down the quarterback is injuries. But since he’s back for an 18th season, there’s no reason to believe he isn’t healthy. After all, Manning has repeatedly said he won’t play if he doesn’t think he can physically handle the game any more; at some point, it would be smart to take his word for it.
In the meantime, Denver’s brood of Chicken Littles can keep searching for their own Buster Douglas moment. It ain’t happening in 2015.
