While first-round draft pick Bo Nix is expected to come out on top of the Denver Broncos’ quarterback competition in training camp, one thing is even more certain (assuming he’s on the roster): Courtland Sutton will be a focal point of Denver’s offense.
Sutton exploded back onto the scene last season, setting a career-high with 10 touchdowns and producing a highlight reel that delighted fans, despite Denver’s underwhelming offense. Despite dealing with seemingly unending turnover in the Broncos’ coaching staff and subpar quarterback play throughout his career, Sutton has consistently showcased his ability to win contested catches and make explosive plays downfield. He still possesses the potential to become one of the league’s elite wide receivers, and perhaps Nix could become the catalyst to unlock his full potential.
Sutton’s explosive 2023 performance
Sutton’s touchdown production surged last season, averaging an impressive 0.62 per game, compared to his career average of 0.22. His 10 touchdowns tied him for fourth-most in the league, but his scoring profile was unique.
While Sutton found the end zone frequently, his touchdown distribution differed from other high-scoring receivers.
“The 16 wide receivers who scored eight-plus times last season averaged a 27.3% target rate when their team was within 10 yards of the end zone, but Sutton was at 17.9%. His target share has been much higher from the 11-20-yard line,” according to Pro Football Focus.
Sutton was targeted 90 times last season. This total was followed closely by Jerry Jeudy, who had 87. Jeudy’s trade to Cleveland leaves a void in the receiving corps, though free agent newcomer Josh Reynolds and fourth-round draft pick Troy Franklin – Nix’s leading receiver at Oregon last season – stand ready to fill that void. Neither of them, however, have proven track records that match Sutton’s production. This makes him the team’s clear-cut No. 1.
Sutton’s production hinges on quarterback play
Sutton’s undeniable chemistry with Russell Wilson was a key factor in his success. However, with Wilson now in Pittsburgh, the Broncos face uncertainty at the quarterback position. Head coach Sean Payton has remained tight-lipped about a timetable for naming a starter, ostensibly leaving the competition wide open.
Nix, is the clear frontrunner for the starting job. Payton has been openly enthusiastic about the former Oregon Duck, which contrasts his relationship with Wilson.
Nix arrives in Denver with a strong resumé. His exceptional ball security, highlighted by a league-low 1.0% turnover-worthy play rate among qualifying college quarterbacks in 2023, is particularly impressive. Additionally, his ability to quickly and accurately distribute the ball aligns perfectly with Denver’s offensive needs, as the team struggled with timing and efficiency in the passing game last season.
Denver’s heavy reliance on the run could limit Sutton’s opportunities. The Broncos were a ground-and-pound team last season, ranking eighth in rushing attempts. Given Payton’s history of prioritizing the run and involving running backs in the passing game, this trend will likely continue. This is especially true if it’s a rookie quarterback at the helm.
However, Sutton’s veteran savvy could be a lifeline for the rookie quarterback. A prime example is Adam Thielen, who thrived in Carolina last season despite Bryce Young’s struggles. Thielen’s 1,000-yard campaign was largely due to his consistent target share, a testament to the value of a reliable veteran receiver.
While Sutton’s touchdown total might decrease in 2024, his overall target volume could see an uptick. As the Broncos navigate a new era, the relationship between Sutton and the team’s signal-caller will play a huge role in determining the team’s ability to find success.
