“They did it last year.”

I can’t even begin to count the amount of times I’ve heard that line over the last few weeks: “It doesn’t matter how bad the offense is. They stunk last year and won the Super Bowl. Who says they can’t do it again?”

Well, nobody, but that’s not the point.

To compare this year’s team to the one that won the Super Bowl a year ago is dangerous. It makes sense, it’s fair, but it’s dangerous.

Yes, the 2016 Denver Broncos are very similar to their 2015 counterparts, and that’s what’s scary. The 2015 Denver Broncos walked a death-defying tightrope all the way to Santa Clara, where they picked up a Lombardi Trophy and a case full of Super Bowl rings. That was awesome. But — and I know this isn’t what Broncos Country wants to hear — it was not likely.

I’m not going to use the word luck, because it carries a negative connotation, but I will use the word “breaks.” And all the breaks went Denver’s way last season:

Week 1 (19-13): Aqib Talib takes a pick-six 51 yards for the game-winning touchdown; Joe Flacco‘s game-winning TD pass intercepted by Darian Stewart in the end zone 

Week 2 (31-24): Jamaal Charles fumbles the ball with 35 seconds left in the game and Bradley Roby returns it for a game-winning touchdown

Week 4 (23-20): T.J. Ward forces a Teddy Bridgewater fumble with 35 seconds left in the game to secure a three-point victory

Week 5 (16-10): Chris Harris‘ fourth-quarter pick-six secures the victory for Denver over the Raiders

Week 6 (26-23): Browns go three-and-out in overtime and Brandon McManus kicks game-winning field goal

Week 12 (30-24): C.J. Anderson breaks a 48-yard touchdown in overtime to take down the Pats

Week 16 (20-17): A.J. McCarron fumbles the ball in overtime, and DeMarcus Ware seals the game with the recovery

Divisional Round (23-16): Fitzgerald Toussaint fumbles inside Broncos territory while Steelers were driving to add to their one-point lead in the fourth quarter

AFC Championship (20-18): Tom Brady misses Rob Gronkowski wide open in the end zone for the game-tying two-point conversion

Super Bowl (24-10): The Denver Broncos defense recovers both Cam Newton fumbles, including one for a touchdown

Individually, each one of those victories is reasonable. The Broncos shouldn’t be punished for forcing a fumble or taking an interception 40 yards to the house.

But here’s the deal: The Denver Broncos earned the No. 1 seed on a tiebreaker, they won the division by a game, and they were two losses from missing the playoffs entirely. That’s a fine line to walk.

Just think, if C.J. Anderson doesn’t take that handoff 48 yards to the house to beat the Patriots in overtime, not only do they miss out on the No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but they lose the AFC West, forcing them to play on the road Wild Card weekend.

In fact, change the outcome of any one of those seven regular season games, let alone all three postseason games, and the Broncos almost definitely don’t win the Super Bowl — they needed that home field advantage against the Steelers and Patriots.

Denver went 11-3 in one-score games last year, and while it was exciting, it’s not a stat you want to be relying on.

Proof? Through six games this season, the Denver Broncos have played in four more one-score games and currently hold a record of 2-2. If they continue on that pace, it’s nearly impossible to imagine another deep playoff run.

Winning close games may be a skill — and if it is, the Broncos are about as good as anyone — but it’s a scary, scary way to go about business.

The Broncos need to be better. They need to stop relying on “breaks” in one-score games.

Does that mean they need to make a major move, like trading for a quarterback … ? Not necessarily. But they need to do something, even if that means simply finding a way to improve from within.

As it stands, with Broncos following the same exact game plan from last year, they can win it all. Sure. Anybody not named the Cleveland Browns is capable of saying that. But it’s just extremely unlikely.

The Broncos, and their fans, need to be looking for more, better. Don’t point to last year as a reason for success; look at last year as a place to build upon.

And let’s start building.