The Denver Broncos are underdogs against the Buffalo Bills.

It’s a close spread, but the Bills are still favored despite the game being in the Mile High City next Saturday.

Hopefully Sean Payton and the Broncos use that as extra motivation going into the Divisional Round.

Denver Broncos 1.5-point underdogs vs. Buffalo Bills

All signs point to the Denver Broncos being the favorite—they’re at home, coming off the bye week, and have a better record—and yet the Bills are 1.5-point favorites as of Monday.

Normally, home teams are given 3 points thanks to homefield advantage. And Denver’s got a lot of that. Not only is Empower Field at Mile High Stadium one of the loudest environments in the NFL, but the Broncos have lost only one game at home since October 2024, to the Jaguars.

And when we look at playoff history, the Broncos are an astounding 17-5 at home in the playoffs. That’s a stellar .773 winning percentage.

Meanwhile, the Bills are historically awful on the road in playoff games. Yesterday was Josh Allen’s first playoff win of his career, and the team had lost eight straight games dating back 33 years before narrowly beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

On top of all that historical advantage Denver should have, the Broncos are coming off their bye week. Meanwhile, since the game will be played on Saturday, the Bills will be on a short week when they travel to the Mile High City.

Certainly, experience matters in the NFL playoffs. So does name recognition.

Maybe Josh Allen earns the Bills the betting favorite line with his name alone. Or the fact that he carried his Bills to the win in Jacksonville literally and figuratively. His two scores were the difference in the game, plus he was incredibly accurate (80%) passing.

Still, the Broncos are the No. 1 seed, at home.

But, if they have to be the home underdog, so be it. They were in a similar position against the Green Bay Packers, and the Broncos pulled that game out with a demonstrative win.

When asked what the Broncos showed by beating the Packers, Bo Nix responded, “That we’re the overdogs.”

They’ve got to have that mentality again this week.

Sean Payton will likely motivate with the underdogs theme

One would expect Broncos head coach Sean Payton to use the home underdogs framing as extra motivation for this players.

Denver is the No. 1 seed, after all. And Payton hates to be disrespected.

Patrick Daugherty of NBC Sports explained it well on Monday:

Bills officially favored in Denver (as they should be). This makes for a dream motivational scenario for Sean Payton. He can hit both "we're the best damn team in the league!" but also "nobody believes in us! The No. 1 seed is a home 'dog??"

— Patrick Daugherty (@rotopat.bsky.social) 2026-01-12T16:03:26.434Z

On top of that, Denver can work the “revenge” angle since they lost to the Bills in the playoffs last year.

Payton was too cautious with his play-calling in the second half of that 31-7 loss so hopefully he learned from those mistakes.

No doubt about it, this 2025 team is a different animal compared to last year. Bo Nix is in his second season, as is No. 2 receiver Troy Franklin. And the defense has dramatically improved too, especially with the addition of Talanoa Hufanga. He and Dre Greenlaw could possibly help Denver turn the tide on spying and containing Josh Allen on the ground.

In today’s NFL there are few “billboard material” quotes because athletes know not to give their opponents any extra motivation. But it looks like the sportsbooks have done that themselves by making the Broncos the home ‘dogs.

Denver (14-3) hosts Buffalo (13-5) on Saturday, Jan. 17 with a 2:30p.m. MT kickoff.