Denver Broncos 2025 projections are rolling in.

And, good news Broncos Country, The Athletic’s computer model predicts the orange and blue will be the fifth-best team in the AFC.

Let’s dive into what else it foresees for this 2025 season.

Denver Broncos 2025 projections: Sean Payton’s team back in the playoffs

Sean Payton’s Broncos have come a long way in a year. Last offseason, many predicted the team would be one of the worst in the NFL once again.

And yet, Denver went 10-7 and pushed their way into the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50.

This year, people aren’t discounting Denver.

Some are calling the team a dark horse, and some are even guessing the Broncos will win the AFC West.

The Athletic’s computer models, which runs 10,000 simulations, has Denver winning 9.2 games, with a 53.5% chance to make the playoffs. They also have a 2.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Projections by The Athletic.

They picked the Buffalo Bills to win the conference, followed by the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals ahead of Denver.

The top tier of teams are the “real” contenders, with the Bengals also being part of that group, on the fringe. Meanwhile, the Broncos are among other playoff-worthy teams who aren’t legitimate contenders to the crown.

Noteworthy in these projections have the Chiefs winning less than two more games than Denver. And, they have the Los Angeles Chargers on the outside looking into the playoffs.

Broncos O/U win total: 9.5 games

Considering The Athletic’s projections at 9.2 wins for the Broncos, would you take the over or under on 9.5 wins?

Two years ago, Payton took a terrible team from 5-12 before he arrived to 8-9. Those Broncos, led by Russell Wilson on offense, were a few wins away from being in the playoffs.

Last year, with his team and his quarterback–Bo Nix–Payton’s win total increased to 10. Keep in mind, the oddsmakers had the Broncos O/U win total at 5.5 games last year, and Payton took that personally.

“I love being the underdog,” Payton said in an interview. “The next time I only win six games in a season will be the first.”

It seems the oddsmakers have smartened up this time around.

And considering this offseason, it seems highly unlikely the Broncos don’t win at least 10 games this year.

They added to their already dominant defense. They added playmakers at running back in R.J. Harvey and J.K. Dobbins. Denver signed Evan Engram as a legitimate tight end for Bo Nix. And it’s Nix’s second year in Payton’s scheme as well as the NFL.

First up for Bo and the Broncos are the woeful Tennessee Titans on Sunday, Sept. 7 (2:05 p.m. MT).