The Denver Broncos face a must-win game this week.
At 1-2 overall, they have the 2-1 Cincinnati Bengals at home on Monday Night Football.
Usually, must-win games are reserved for later in the season, but Denver can’t afford to slip to 1-3 with the LA Chargers at a perfect 3-0 currently.
Denver Broncos face a must-win game against the Bengals
If a handful of plays go Denver’s way, they’d be 2-1 or even 3-0 right now. But because they’re 1-2, this week’s game is a must-win for the Broncos.
Everyone’s calling this a “get right” game for Bo Nix and Denver’s offense, and it certainly should be. The Bengals defense is giving up a whopping 30.3 points per game (26th), allowing scores in the red zone at a 64.3% clip (22nd) and are 28th in 3rd down defense (46.3%).
Cincy is also one of the worst teams in the league in defending the pass. They give up 240.6 pass yards per game (25th) and 5 passing TDs (26th) through three games.
Nix has struggled greatly this year, but he has to take advantage of the Bengals at home, right?
Yes. Definitely. Especially if the Broncos want to keep their playoff hopes alive and well, not just on life support.
Nix has been a boom or bust quarterback this year. Most of his passes have come at or behind the line of scrimmage, with a few going deep. There’s been an almost complete lack of intermediate passing game, and teams are playing zone against the Broncos more than any other team. And Nix is not playing well against it.
In fact, when you take Pro Football Focus grade and add in adjusted EPA, Nix is playing the worst football in the NFL:
Adjusted EPA + PFF blend through week 3
— Ben Baldwin (@rbsdm.com) September 24, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Simply, the Denver Broncos offense is desperate and broken.
How can they “get right” this week?
First off, Nix needs to play his best game of the season by limiting turnovers and connecting with receivers at multiple depths. If Even Engram plays, that should help the intermediate passing game, but it’s no guarantee he will. Nix also needs to stay calm in the pocket with the league’s best pass-blocking offensive line. All while not turning the ball over.
Next, the Broncos offense needs to work to sustain long drives against the Bengals, and that will happen by increasing offensive success rate.
In the latest The Ringer NFL Show, Sheil Kapadia explained Denver’s offense is 31st in offensive success rate, and they’re worse through three games than they were last year. Success rate is gaining 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down. So, gaining seven yards on 1st and 10 is a successful play, or moving the chains on 3rd and 2, etc.
Last week in the narrow loss to the Chargers, Denver went 3-and-out on 7-of-11 drives.
Finally, the run game needs more consistency. Denver was stuffed at or behind the line on 24% of runs last week. They need to gash the Bengals, who are mediocre-at-best at stopping the run.
Denver’s defense should handle Bengals with ease
Because the Bengals are Burrow-less, their offense is struggling.
They’re 24th in points per game (19.3), dead last in total yards, and have the most turnovers in the NFL with 8.
Jake Browning is the team’s current quarterback while Burrow deals with an injured toe that will sideline him until December. And last week, Cincy was absolutely destroyed by the Vikings defense. Browning threw two picks and the Bengals fumbled three times in that game alone.
But Browning doesn’t have any quit in him, either. Rewind to Week 2, and he led a comeback victory over the Jaguars.
Denver’s defense currently leads the league in sacks with 12, and Zach Allen leads the NFL with 10 QB hits. Nik Bonitto is right behind Allen with 9 QB hits already this year. Expect the Broncos to bring the heat to sack Browning multiple times and likely force a turnover or two.
The Bengals boast Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as their top receivers, so Patrick Surtain and Denver’s deep defensive backfield will still have their hands full, even if it’s Browning and not Burrow slinging the pigskin.
Continuing, Cincy is the worst rushing attack in the league at a mere 49 yards per game on the ground. That’s likely partially from playing behind and being forced to pass.
Conversely, Denver’s only middle-of-the-pack at stopping the run, so this could pose a tune up opportunity for that unit, too.
Why this is a must-win game for Denver
This game is a must-win not only because the Broncos lost their last two contests on last-second field goals, but because they play the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles next week.
If Denver wins on Monday Night Football, they’ll be 2-2, and back in the thick of it. Both for the AFC West and the AFC playoff picture. If the Broncos fall to 1-3, they’ll be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. With three losses to AFC teams to boot.
And if they were to fall to 1-3, it would make a loss to the Eagles all that more likely, dropping their record to 1-4.
A win would right the ship, and instead build momentum going into the tough Eagles game in Philadelphia on a short week. Then, even a loss to Philly would leave the Broncos at 2-3, with a stretch of winnable games up next. They face the Jets, Giants, Cowboys, Texans and Raiders after the Eagles; they have a combined 2-13 record (.133 winning percentage).
Denver (1-2) and Cincinnati (2-1) play at 6:15 p.m. MT on Monday Night Football in the Mile High City. Last year, the Bengals beat the Broncos 30-24 in overtime after some late-game heroics by Nix and Marvin Mims.
