The Denver Broncos have the second-best chances of winning Super Bowl LX per ESPN’s Football Power Index Projections.
While this has been shaping up as an NFC-dominant year, the Broncos and Patriots are fighting to represent the AFC. And the projections favor Denver over New England.
Denver Broncos have second-best chances of winning Super Bowl LX only behind Seattle Seahawks
The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks have each come a long way in 2025, and with one regular season game to play, they are atop each conference’s chances of winning Super Bowl LX.
According to ESPN FPI projections, the Seahawks have a 24% chance of making Super Bowl LX and a 13.4% chance of winning it all. The next-best chances are the Broncos, with a 26.2% chance of making the Super Bowl, and a 12.1% chance of winning their fourth Vince Lombardi Trophy.
ESPN FPI Index showing the top 8 teams in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl.
The interesting part of this things have gotten topsy turvy in the projections over the last three weeks.
After Week 14, the Rams were the favorite to win Super Bowl LX at 19.0%; Denver was the best in the AFC at 9.9%. Since, LA lost to the Seahawks in that overtime thriller, then lost last night 27-24 to the Atlanta Falcons in a shocker. Now, LA has zero chance of winning the NFC. This week’s Seahawks vs. 49ers game not only decides the NFC West, but the No. 1 seed in the NFC, too.
Obviously, earning that No. 1 seed helps a team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl because they get to rest while the other six teams in their conference battle on Wild Card weekend. That moves them onto the Divisional Round and only two wins away from the big game.
On the AFC side of things, the Chargers are resting Justin Herbert and likely other starters too, meaning Denver should lock the No. 1 seed up this Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium. The FPI projections expect that, too, which is why the Broncos have such great odds of winning it all.
Four of the top five teams are from the NFC, but if San Francisco wins this Sunday, they will catapult to the top of the list. Meaning the Rams, Seahawks, and Niners have each been atop the list in the last month.
There’s something to be said for consistency, just as there is something to be said for getting hot at the right time. Like the 49ers are.
Denver Broncos need to go on a three-game win streak to make Super Bowl LX
If Denver wins three straight games, they’ll make their ninth Super Bowl appearance as a franchise.
First up, the LA Chargers (11-5) this Sunday. Yesterday, Jim Harbaugh announced he’s resting the injured Justin Herbert. He also said the Chargers will rest their “most bruised” players, without giving any names this early in the week.
That’s fantastic news for Denver. It was a game in which the Broncos were already the favorite, at -6.5, and moved to -11.5 with the news. The Broncos are not only the better team, but they’re playing at home and with the No. 1 seed on the line. Even with the Chargers at full strength, Denver was likely to win.
Now, it’s almost a sure thing.
If they do win, they’ll have the Wild Card weekend of Jan. 10-11 off, while potential opponents battle in the playoffs. Denver will face the lowest remaining seed if they take home the AFC’s top seed. And the road to the Super Bowl would run through the Mile High City.
A win in the Divisional Round would mean hosting an AFC Championship Game for the eighth time in franchise history. Denver’s gone a stellar 6-1 in home AFC Championship games, and 8-2 overall.
These Denver Broncos have been incredibly thrilling. They set the NFL record on Christmas with their 12th comeback victory of the season. And they’ve gone an incredible 11-2 in one-score games this year.
Denver’s defense has led the way all year long, but the offense has come on in down the stretch, making the Broncos a more complimentary team.
One thing Denver doesn’t have that teams like Buffalo in the AFC or the Rams in the NFC do have, is extensive playoff experience. Quarterback Bo Nix is still in only his second year, and many youngsters like Troy Franklin and RJ Harvey are being relied upon to perform at a high level. All that pressure ratchets up in the postseason, when teams and individual players give it their all on every play.
It’s been a sensational season for the Broncos and this end of year/playoff run it setting up to be a wild ride. Enjoy, Broncos Country.
