Tomorrow night, the 2024 NFL Draft kicks off with the first round.

And because they went on a run in the middle of last season, the Denver Broncos pick No. 12 overall.

While the obvious biggest need on the team is at quarterback, the Broncos will likely miss out on the top-4 QBs. That’s the bad news.

The good news is it opens Denver up to take a possible great player at a number of other needy positions.

The 2024 NFL Draft is key for Denver Broncos moving forward

QB or not QB? That is the question.

And in all likelihood, the Broncos will probably go after another need at No. 12 overall.

Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy are expected to go in the top-10, and possibly in the top-6 picks.

What about Denver moving up in the NFL Draft? Sean Payton called it realistic a few months ago. But is it really?

The short answer is: No. The Broncos don’t have a second-round pick and only the 20th-ranked draft capital, or not enough to package together and move up significantly. Another possibility is the team trading a veteran player, like Courtland Sutton, Garett Bolles, or Patrick Surtain as part of a package to move up. But those seem unlikely, too, outside of Sutton.

So, Denver should either take the best fit possible at 12, or trade back, acquire a pick and still get a great player.

And Mike Clay’s ranking of position groups backs up that point. With the Broncos being so needy at so many positions, they’ll have an opportunity to land someone special at a position of need.

As you can see here, the Broncos are the 3rd-worst team in the NFL based on these unit grades. Only the Washington Commanders have a worse QB unit, and only the New York Giants have a worse starting safety duo. Also of note, their 0.8 grade at EDGE is 6th-worst, and the Broncos are 7th-worst at WR, 8th-worst at TE.

Where the Broncos shine is on the offensive line (10th), and cornerback (10th).

So, can this clue us into where Denver is likely to pick tomorrow and this entire upcoming weekend?

What position will the Broncos target in the first round?

Most NFL Draft “experts” have the Broncos taking one of four positions: QB, OT, EDGE, or CB.

But, do all of those actually make sense at 12?

If we rely on Clay’s unit ranks, quarterback, EDGE, and tight end seem to be the most needy positions.

And if the Broncos stay put, there will be some enticing options at those spots.

Quarterback

At QB, even if the top-4 guys are off the board, there will be a few options.

Namely, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix Jr.

Bot the former Oregon and Washington QBs are old as they come out of college: Nix is already 24 and Penix will soon be. To put that into perspective, new Broncos quarterback Zach Wilson is also 24 and has been in the league for three years.

If Denver and Sean Payton are really desperate, they’ll be able to take Nix or Penix at 12, but it would be a reach to do so for either of them. Both are expected to go in the second round, so trading back and getting them later would make the most sense if they go QB.

EDGE

There will likely be multiple talented edge rushers available to Denver at 12. Laiatu Latu, Jared Verse, and Dallas Turner could all be available when the Broncos pick, although it seems likely at least one will be off the board.

According to the NFL Draft experts, all three of them are projected to be long-time starters at the NFL level. They all package height, strength, and athleticism and Denver would be better with any of the three. However, some believe Latu is the most NFL-ready immediately. If the Broncos don’t get an EDGE early, the drop-off in talent will be severe later in the draft.

Tight End

If the Broncos, George Paton, and Sean Payton want to go for a tight end, there’s only one name that names a lot of sense. It’s Brock Bowers.

Bowers, out of Georgia, is in many analysts’ top-10 prospects of this 2024 NFL Draft. So, he could be gone by pick 12. If not, Denver will likely consider taking him because he’s a big-play machine. Bowers is expected to be a first-year starter and is being compared to George Kittle.

If Denver doesn’t take Bowers in the first, the good news is there will be other talented players on days 2 and 3.

The 2024 NFL Draft kicks off at 6 p.m. MDT on Thursday, April 25.