Another week, and the Denver Broncos playoff odds have increased once again.
Rewind two weeks and Denver was just about 50/50 to make the playoffs (52% per NFL.com).
Then, they blew out the Falcons 38-6, and those chances increased to 68%. A second straight win for the Broncos–29-19 over the rival Raiders–has again helped Denver. Plus, the Chargers lost to the Ravens, meaning there could be movement in the AFC standings.
Denver Broncos playoff odds increase again with a win over the Raiders
Good teams–playoff teams–find ways to beat bad teams. Even if it’s ugly, tough, and on the road.
That’s what the Broncos did on Sunday in Las Vegas. They pushed and fought their way to victory, even if the offense struggled for most of the game. Definitely, defense led Denver to the win, allowing only six points after halftime while racking up five sacks and two turnovers.
Thanks to that win, the Broncos are now 7-5 on the season and continue to sit in the seventh and final AFC playoff spot.
According to NFL.com, the Denver Broncos playoff chances are 73% currently. ESPN and The Athletic both have the Broncos at 63%.
The Chargers are in the sixth spot, at 7-4 overall, after their 30-23 loss to Baltimore last night. They are all but assured of making the playoffs, with an 86% chance right now.
But, there are slight chances the Chargers or Broncos could win the AFC West, and greater chances LA could slip into seventh and Denver move up to sixth.
Could Denver move into sixth in the AFC playoff race?
Earlier this year, the Broncos lost to the Chargers in Empower Field at Mile High Stadium. That head-to-head loss hurts Denver’s chances of leaping LA in the playoff standings. But there’s still wiggle room for either team.
That’s partly because the Broncos play two AFC West games–versus the Chargers on Dec. 19, and Chiefs on Jan. 5–while LA has three intradivisional games (Raiders). And divisional games are the first tiebreaker.
One simple way Denver could move up to sixth is if they simply win more games than the Chargers. However, the Broncos have a tougher end of the season, with a strength of schedule at .518 vs. the Chargers’ .485.
That makes the teams’ head-to-head matchup in LA crucial. It’s basically a must-win game for the Broncos if they want to move up in the standings.
Keep in mind, though, that game has been flexed to Thursday Night Football. So the Broncos will play not only on a short week, but they also have to travel.
Before Denver gets there, they have a big game against the Browns on Monday Night Football this week. Cleveland (3-8) should be an easy win for Denver, but the Browns just beat the Steelers last week thanks to a great defense. Then Denver finally has their late bye. Next up, they will face the Indianapolis Colts (5-7) who will be fighting for their playoff lives. Then the Broncos-Chargers game takes place.
The Broncos have to take care of business against worse teams before they get to LA.
Meanwhile, the Chargers face the Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers before the Broncos. If LA loses one of those games–their three toughest remaining games–the teams would be tied at 9-5 for their huge showdown in LA.
Denver faces the Bengals and Chiefs to end their regular season, while the Chargers have an easier slate with the Patriots and Raiders.
Moving up from seventh to sixth has two benefits. First, that team plays the No. 3 seed, rather than the No. 2 seed. Secondly, the No. 1 seed plays the lowest remaining seed. So, if Denver was sixth and LA was seventh–and both teams somehow won on Wildcard Weekend–the Chiefs would face the Chargers.