The Denver Broncos rank 12th in ESPN FPI, or Football Power Index.
That new list just came out today, and it’s projecting the Broncos back to the playoffs for a second straight year.
When the 2025 season kicks off in less than 100 days, Denver won’t be a surprise team. They’ll be right in the mix as legitimate contenders.
Denver Broncos rank 12th in ESPN FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks all 32 teams based on projected offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiencies and the Broncos are 12th overall.
They are also the sixth AFC team, meaning they’re projected to make the playoffs for a second straight year.
According to the FPI, the Broncos are at a 1.3 overall, tied with the San Francisco 49ers. Denver’s offense (0.1) is just slightly better than average while their defense (1.2) is among the best in the league.
Unsurprisingly, the AFC’s top teams look like this:
- Kansas City (5.4 FPI)
- Baltimore (5.2)
- Buffalo (4.6)
- Cincinnati (2.5)
- LA Chargers (1.8)
- Denver (1.3)
- Houston (0.9)
- Pittsburgh (0.1)
These are basically the same teams who made the playoffs last year, with the Bengals jumping into the mix and the Steelers missing out.
And, it’s hard to argue these aren’t the tiers of teams. KC, Baltimore and Buffalo are in the top tier, with everyone else in the next.
But, how accurate are the FPI projections?
Looking back to last year, they were way off on the Broncos, 49ers, Commanders, and Jets, among others.
The Broncos were the third-worst team with a -4.9 FPI and projected to earn the No. 3 pick in the draft. Meanwhile the 49ers were the best team before 2024 kicked off.
The miss on San Francisco is easy to blame on injuries, but it’s clear FPI doesn’t value rookie quarterbacks very highly (Commanders at 28th).
So, the 10,000 simulations can sometimes be off. That’s something to keep in mind going into 2025.
Broncos with 49.3% chance of making playoffs
ESPN FPI’s playoff percentages are a bit weird because Denver’s the 6th-best AFC team but have less than 50% chance of making the postseason.
They project the Broncos with a record of 8.9 wins and 8.1 losses; so 9-8 overall. It’s good to note here that Mike Clay’s prediction for the Broncos is 9.7 wins, and the O/U by Las Vegas is 9.5.
They also break down the percentages of winning the division, making each round of the playoffs, and winning the Super Bowl.
Denver Broncos projections:
- Win AFC West: 19.3%
- Make Divisional Round: 27.2%
- Make AFC Championship Game: 12.8%
- Make Super Bowl LX: 5.7%
- Win Super Bowl LX: 2.7%
Last week, the SportsLine Projection gave Denver a 55.7% chance of making the playoffs. And Henry McKenna of FOX Sports picked the Broncos to win the AFC West, too.
Most analysts are high on the Broncos, though some aren’t as high on Bo Nix. Pro Football Focus ranked him 19th.
As long as Nix avoids a sophomore slump, Denver should be playoff bound again this season.
