Denver Broncos’ RJ Harvey has been a remarkable rookie running back for the team.
And he’s a player no one in the media seems to be focusing on, despite the Buffalo Bills having a terrible run defense.
If Harvey excels like we’ve seen in multiple games this year, he could be the deciding player in the Divisional Round playoff game.
Denver Broncos RJ Harvey could be X-factor in Broncos vs. Bills
Harvey rushed for 540 yards and 7 touchdowns this year, and also caught 47 passes for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns. He may not lead the Broncos in rushing yards—that’s J.K. Dobbins, with 772 yards on the IR—but Harvey does lead the Broncos in total touchdowns scored.
To wit, his 12 touchdowns scored have been 28% of the Broncos offense, which is 10th-most among all players this year.
He’s been a sensationally versatile running back for Denver this season.
We’ve seen his speed on display in the Dallas Cowboys game, when he took a ball 40 yards to the house untouched.
[Highlight] RJ Harvey takes it 40 yards to the house
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We’ve also seen him catch five touchdowns, and not just on screen passes. Harvey plays like a legitimate wide receiver at times. Including his 27-yard touchdown against the Houston Texans. He also had the clutch catch in the Chiefs game, finding space in the end zone.
“He knows what it is like to find space,” Bo Nix said of Harvey on that play. “He is a really savvy football player. He does things a lot that are unteachable that he has in his toolbox. He does stuff like that all the time. It is just football savvy. It just worked where he bought some time in the end zone and made a good catch.”
Simply, what we’ve seen from RJ Harvey is an ability to run between the tackles and outside of them, albeit he is better on outside runs. We’ve seen him catch screens and go balls.
Basically, the rookie can do it all from an offensive standpoint. And while some people are sleeping on Denver’s playmakers, and their supposed lack of them, Harvey could end up being the X-factor in this game.
If Harvey goes off, it would be an incredible arrival game for many on the national level that slept on him specifically.
Broncos could exploit the Bills on outside zone
According to Mina Kimes on her podcast, the Denver Broncos are 5th in the NFL on outside zone runs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are 25th on outside runs, giving up more than 5 yards per carry.
That’s a perfect place for Sean Payton, RJ Harvey, and the Broncos to exploit the Bills defense.
As stated earlier, Harvey is a better running back outside than he is inside. His 5’8″ frame is more well suited to avoid contact than to power through opponents, and his speed is dazzling.
If the Broncos can get Harvey out into space today, he should be able to break some medium and possibly even some long runs. That’s why he could be the X-factor; one long run to the house could decide the game. Or it could help Denver get up early, which is definitely a point of emphasis this week.
Another great tidbit of information from Kimes is the Broncos are actually 3rd in running success rate since Week 10. That’s all RJ Harvey, with a little Jaleel McLaughlin mixed in, because that’s when Dobbins went down with the injury. It doesn’t include Bo Nix runs.
A successful run means gaining 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% (or converting for a first down) on 3rd downs.
Meanwhile, the Bills are 28th in rushing yards allowed this year, giving up 128.6 rushing yards per game. And their 24 rushing TDs allowed is 31st.
While Buffalo is the best rushing team in the NFL, the Broncos run game will be a definite deciding factor today. If Denver can run the ball well, both with their backs as well as with Nix, the Broncos should win the game. They must protect the ball and not turn it over, certainly, but runs are generally less turnover risk than passing anyway.
Denver (14-3) faces Buffalo (13-5) today at 2:30 p.m. MT at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium.
