In just over 24 hours, the NBA Trade Deadline will pass, and the Denver Nuggets will have lost a potential opportunity to get better.

Thursday marks the day the rest of the NBA will use as their final opportunity for improvements. James Harden was just traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Darius Garland. Jaren Jackson Jr. was just traded to the Utah Jazz in a surprising deal with Ja Morant likely to follow him out of Memphis.

Other moves have been made, but the Nuggets? They’re likely to stay mostly the same.

And that might not be such a bad thing. When Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are healthy, the Nuggets have a chance against anybody. That’s been put to the test over the last few days though as the Nuggets have faced the top seed in the West and reining NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, as well as the top seed in the East Detroit Pistons. Denver’s lost in back-to-back games, and while they haven’t been healthy, there’s no guarantee that things look drastically different in April or May than they did in these two games.

Jokic is still returning from his knee injury, and while he is making strides physically, the Nuggets have still shown significant weakness defensively while covering for Jokic’s limited skill set. The Nuggets are collapsing into the paint, and they’re constantly in rotation as a result. The two teams that defeated Denver, two of the best teams in the league, combined for 50 assists, 48 made free throws, and shooting over 40% from three.

The Nuggets appeared overwhelmed, which is understandable. They were missing their starting small forward (Cam Johnson) and starting power forward (Aaron Gordon). Against the Pistons, they were also missing Spencer Jones, who has one more game of eligibility on his two-way contract. That might change tonight against the New York Knicks, but there’s no question the Nuggets need to find a solution against teams that are physical and more athletic than them, now and in the future.

Because when the playoffs roll around, the Nuggets are going to be heavily reliant on Aaron Gordon again. He and Spencer Jones are the only players with the combination of size and physicality to truly switch and scramble without giving up size on the interior. Peyton Watson, when locked in, can be a true impact defender in many ways, but he’s still undersized when dealing with switches against centers, power forwards, and even strong wings. The Nuggets are often forced to rotate in these situations, and that creates worse mismatches all over the court.

Without Denver’s big forwards out there, Denver’s been playing extremely small on the defensive end, often featuring lineups with Julian Strawther at power forward. Watson at power forward is extremely common these days, but it should be used as a wrinkle, not as part of Denver’s defining group. Christian Braun is his first minutes back from a prolonged absence guarded Cade Cunningham as the biggest wing on the floor in the second quarter, and he will often be asked to slide to power forward until Gordon or Johnson return or if Jones’ contract is converted.

The Nuggets have Zeke Nnaji, DaRon Holmes, and Hunter Tyson sitting on their bench, but it’s clear that the Nuggets coaching staff wants to go another direction instead, especially against top teams in the NBA.

So, what do the Nuggets do? What can they do?

The answer: not much.

On the season, the Nuggets rank 23rd in defensive rating on NBA.com, 23rd on Cleaning the Glass, and 25th on Dunks and Threes. Pick a favorite defensive benchmark, with or without garbage time, with or without schedule adjustment, and the Nuggets are probably bad on defense. The Nuggets started the season well defensively, but they benefitted from such great shooting luck early on that it’s difficult to know what was real and not real.

Since Christian Braun’s first injury on November 12th, the Nuggets rank 27th in defensive rating on Cleaning the Glass. They’re been objectively horrible for a while.

With 24 hours to go, I don’t expect the Nuggets to add anyone significant at the trade deadline to change that either. The team doesn’t have any trade assets in the form of draft capital, and they also lack tradeable contracts that opposing teams see as valuable. Strawther has played well in the last few weeks though, so maybe a team considers a flyer on him to be worth it. Unfortunately, the tradeable salary is the biggest hindrance, especially with Denver’s actual goal in mind: ducking the luxury tax.

Through multiple sources, it’s clear that is the goal Denver has continuously been working toward: finding a taker for what is considered excess salary on Denver’s roster. Nnaji’s contract stands out, as does Tyson; however, there are zero takers for Nnaji heading into Wednesday. His contract is not seen as tradeable. Tyson’s expiring contract is movable if Denver provides a small incentive, but that contract ($2.2 million) is too small to generate significant room underneath the tax. With Denver about $400,000 over, the Nuggets would free up a little under $1.8 million in space if they took back no salary in the deal.

The Nuggets are hoping that deal is something Spencer Jones will sign. He might. The precedent is set for players converted from two-way contracts to effectively earn a prorated minimum deal if they play well enough. Craig Porter Jr. did this for the Cavaliers a couple years ago. He was converted to a standard contract on February 14th, 2024, signing for the rest of the season as part of Cleveland’s Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NT-MLE).

Denver technically has access to the NT-MLE up until the first apron, so they can pull from that to give Jones a longer term deal (up to four seasons) if they so choose. Something like a four-year, $9 million contract with the prorated amount this year and increases going forward.

That’s likely all the Nuggets will do. There are whispers that they might explore the buyout market too, but they probably don’t have the flexibility to sign both Jones and add a buyout candidate. If they did, veteran point guard Mike Conley stands out as a steady option and as a connection to current Nuggets EVP of player personnel Jon Wallace with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Perhaps there are other opportunities to emerge. Perhaps there are others moves the Nuggets will make that haven’t been foreseen. Maybe the Nuggets decide to get more aggressive than previously expected, though with what matching salary and draft capital I have no idea.

If this is the group, plus Jones when he’s converted and both Gordon and Johnson when they’re back healthy, the Nuggets will probably look like an entirely different team defensively. The size and athleticism along with the versatility on the wings should give Denver fresh legs and hard workers on defense, which is what’s needed more than anything.

But I’m still not convinced about this group defensively. While they may end up being a historic offense, and they may get back reinforcements, finding enough stops to match up with the best of the best is going to be a challenge. Both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham made it look easy going against Denver’s defense, especially when the Nuggets overcommitted to the stars and allowed wide open shots behind them.

Solving these answers at the deadline is going to be a challenge. Solving them in the regular season even more so.

Do the Nuggets have enough answers to slow teams down in the playoffs? I’m less sure than I was before.

Then again, I’ve been wrong a lot.