The Denver Nuggets were down by as many as 20 points in Sunday’s matinee loss to the Boston Celtics. They only lost 110-103 after staging a solid comeback effort, but mistakes and lack of shotmaking outside of Denver’s top two stars led to their ultimate downfall.
Nikola Jokic had 20 points, 14 rebounds and nine assists, fighting through triple-teams in the paint and managing to earn zero free throw attempts in the process. This was Jokic’s first game since 2021 in which he’s attempted at least 15 shots without attempting a single free throw (in the regular season, because it last happened against the, you guessed it, Los Angeles Lakers in Denver’s closeout Game 5 last year). Jokic faced a similar game plan to the one he saw against the Los Angeles Lakers out of the All-Star break. I thought he handled this game really well, but the Nuggets still lost because they couldn’t make enough shots around him.
Jamal Murray had just four points in the first half, but he turned it on in the second half with 22 points and six assists in the final two frames. Murray also amped up his game defensively, helping hold the combination of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to 10-of-30 from the field and 3-of-11 from three as the star Celtics duo repeatedly attacked him in isolation. Denver could have used a better of Murray in the first half, but the version they got in the second half can win playoff games, undoubtedly.
The problems began around Denver’s top two stars, emphasized by the games of both Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook.
Braun had a mostly strong performance, playing a ludicrous 47 minutes and matching up with Tatum and Brown consistently. The Celtics were comfortable funneling the ball in his direction, and Braun took 22 shots, a career-high, as a result. He added six rebounds, three assists, four steals, and a block. He was very good, especially defensively.
Westbrook wasn’t as good, though there were some good things. He made two of the eight three-pointers he attempted. He had six assists, two steals, and a block of his own. He was only a minus-3 in a game the Nuggets lost by seven, so it wasn’t a “bad” statistical game by any means.
The issue was the way Boston guarded Denver. With Jokic receiving extra attention and Murray being a focal point on the perimeter, the supporting cast has to make the defense pay. While Braun and Westbrook were “fine” offensively, they simply weren’t good enough and didn’t make enough shots to punish the coverages Boston used.
Usually, the gamebreaker in those situations is Michael Porter Jr., but the Nuggets third option had just 10 points on nine shot attempts in the entire game with zero points and one shot attempt in the fourth quarter. He couldn’t free up from the attention he received on the perimeter, and the Celtics didn’t have to do anything crazy to avoid Porter beating them. The fact that Porter took nine shots in a game when Jokic received so much attention is wild, and the fact that Denver couldn’t scheme any additional shots for him with that attention is just as bad.
Aaron Gordon didn’t play, and he might have helped Denver find spacing on both ends of the floor. Julian Strawther isn’t at the stage of his career where he can help in playoff caliber matchups like this one. Peyton Watson is on the mend, but he might be back sooner than later. Zeke Nnaji and Jalen Pickett are playing well. Expecting them to contribute to the playoffs is a step too far though.
Right now, Denver’s in a tough place. Their formula of attacking the paint is so blatant that most teams with a level of basketball intelligence and defensive aptitude are figuring out that packing the paint is a good idea. When Denver scores 54 paint points or more, they’re 32-7. When the opposite happens, the Nuggets are 7-15. Of those 22 games, none of the wins came against the top six of either conference except…the Oklahoma City Thunder.
So, the Nuggets haven’t defeated a Top 6 playoff team unless they’re scored at least 54 points in the paint.
What that says to me is simple: when teams get Denver away from their formula, they have a significant chance of crumbling under the pressure of having to defeat teams with outside shots. Westbrook and Braun are keys to this, and the unfortunate reality for Denver is that they don’t have another guard to turn to that can handle the pressure consistently on both ends of the floor.
So, what do the Nuggets do?
I think time to play Peyton Watson at shooting guard.
Watson is a big wing by trade, and his lack of perimeter skill set has often forced him to the power forward position. The Nuggets have liked the talent that he’s provided, especially on the defensive end of the floor, but there are definitely concerns about his ability to handle the same coverages Braun and Westbrook have faced vs the Lakers and Celtics of late.
So, why put Watson in a similar position? Well, it’s to get the Nuggets defense to the best place it can be come playoff time. I think Watson is Denver’s best perimeter defender, and there are going to be players the Nuggets struggle to guard in the playoffs because Denver’s defense isn’t good enough.
Except, in the second half of this Celtics game, it was good enough. Denver allowed just a 102.1 defensive rating in the second half and a 95.0 with Jokic on the floor. Against the Boston Celtics. That’s a pretty big deal to me, and it hints at a potential solution to Denver’s offensive issues…just be better defensively.
If the Nuggets can find more lineups where they’re holding teams to consistently low totals in the playoffs, they will always have a chance. Jokic and Murray are such tough shotmakers that they don’t need a lot of space to be reasonably efficient. The problem for Denver this year is that when their offense is less than elite level, they don’t win a lot of games. That’s just not who they are, even though there’s a case that it’s who they could be.
In games like this Celtics matchup, Denver probably should have leaned into a defensive game even more. Nnaji played just eight minutes, but he deserved to play more. Pickett has been solid on that end all season. Westbrook can play defense when he’s locked in. Ditto for Braun. Imagine replacing Porter with Watson in some of those closing lineups, or even playing a Murray, Braun, Watson, Gordon, Jokic unit?
Denver’s offense is only going to get them so far in the playoffs before a team will find a way to slow them down. Between now and the rest of the season, Denver should try to find ways to get as many defensive players on the floor as they can, just to see if they can guard these elite teams or not. Even if they want to keep Porter on the floor, a Murray, Watson, Porter, Gordon, Jokic lineup seems like it should work in a playoff setting, and if Watson can make an impact against opposing perimeter scorers, then it’s worth seeing how creative Denver can get.
I’ve been of the mind that Denver isn’t good enough because I’ve seen their offense get exposed in key moments by playoff caliber defenses.
For the first time this season, I saw a Nuggets team that’s capable of guarding a playoff team. I think that’s their ticket to a deep playoff run, and they must rediscover that gear when the time comes.
