By and large, the Denver Nuggets have survived (and even thrived) without Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun in the lineup.
Since November 21st when Gordon went down three minutes into the game, the Nuggets have produced a 9-4 record, including a six-game win streak from December 3rd to December 18th. The majority of Denver’s losses happened earlier in the process as the team learned how to make the best use of Peyton Watson and especially Spencer Jones in the starting lineup.
Despite featuring some good defenders, the starting lineup featuring Watson, Jones, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Cam Johnson hasn’t ever found its stride defensively. That group has been elite offensively with an absurd 135.6 offensive rating, but a 119.5 defensive rating ranks in the 26th percentile league wide, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Denver’s next major rotation after that, swapping in Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. for Cam Johnson and Spencer Jones, is someone even better offensively (142.1 offensive rating) and even worse defensively (137.8 defensive rating, which ranks in the 0th percentile).
The Nuggets are mostly surviving because their offense is unbelievably good. It’s the way they have to play without Gordon and Braun, and now the Nuggets have been without Watson for the last two games either. Expecting Denver to be good defensively isn’t reasonable, but they’ve seemingly gone too far the other direction.
That hurt them against the Houston Rockets on Saturday. Denver allowed Houston to shoot 60.3 eFG%, primarily in the form of Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, and some wide open corner three-point shooters making shots the Nuggets were giving up willingly.
Of course the Nuggets only gave up a 116.3 defensive rating because their defense wasn’t that bad overall, forcing some turnovers and minimizing damage on the defensive glass.
No, the problem was on offense. The Nuggets scored just 101 points and had a 103.1 offensive rating. A lot of guys have bad shooting days, from Jamal Murray at 4-of-13 and Cam Johnson at 2-of-10 to Tim Hardaway Jr. at 3-of-9. Even Nikola Jokic shot 9-of-20, which is far below his standard. As a team, the Nuggets shot 27.6% from three, their third lowest percentage on the season and only the fifth time under 30% from deep.
The Nuggets had been averaging 126.8 points per game since November 21st when Gordon went down. By and large, the Nuggets had still survived offensively, but the minutes the offense struggles, the team becomes vulnerable. There’s little way for the Nuggets to win games defensively other than a play here or a sequence there.
So, are the Nuggets coming back down to earth offensively a bit? It’s of course too early to tell. It was an earlier game on Saturday. Houston is also the third ranked defense per CTG, and they were highly motivated to win after losing a couple overtime games in a row. The Nuggets were due for a bad shooting performance at some point too as they had been shooting 44.7% from three during that six-game winning streak.
Jokic is about as unstoppable of an offensive player as there’s ever been. Murray’s playing at an All-Star level. Cam Johnson is figuring out his role and the expectations facing him night to night. By still having these players, the Nuggets have continued to find ways to score. It’s a lot of pressure though, and Saturday’s game was a good example of what can happen when Denver runs into a team that can disrupt them a bit.
Is this a problem going forward? Hopefully not for long. I would expect both Braun and Gordon to return right around the New Year, which is in about 10 to 12 days. Until then, the Nuggets will face the 29th, 9th, 7th, 10th, 5th, 9th, and 13th ranked defenses, per CTG. After tonight’s Utah game, that’s a pretty tough stretch for Denver’s offense to maintain peak levels.
Jokic and Murray will eventually need some rest, but they’re probably not going to get it until after the New Year. So, the Nuggets will simply have to grind it out. Hopefully, the Nuggets continue to shoot at a high level until then.
