Drew Lock is inconsistent.
That’s the only thing anyone can say for sure.
Well, actually, he’s been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this year. We can say that too, without a doubt.
Lock lit the world on fire last week in Carolina against a bad team, going 21-of-27 for 280 yards and four touchdowns. It was the highest rating (149.5) in Lock’s career and the highest in a road start in Broncos history. For Lock, who started his 16th game today, it was the second great game in his career. Every other one has been either mediocre or, like today, bad.
Even with last week’s superb game, the Broncos quarterback is still the worst in the NFL in completion percentage at 57.3. That’s not just bad, but laughably bad at the professional level. Add onto that 25 percent of his passes are uncatchable balls and, the kid just doesn’t have what it takes to be at this level. Not consistently.
Today, in the 48-19 blowout loss to the Bills, we saw the more typical Drew “Lost”, the bad one. He wasn’t all-out awful, but Lock made many mistakes and was inconsistent all the way through.
Lock finished the game going 20-32 (62.5 percent) for a mere 132 yards and 1 touchdown. He did some things well; like stepping up into the pocket to complete a pass as well as a shovel pass, and running for a first down when no one was open on a 3rd down. His touchdown pass to Noah Fant was a beauty, too.
But, he also got lucky to have multiple interceptions dropped. Each of them could have been pick-6es.
And his most egregious error was the fumble in the fourth quarter which was not only recovered by the Bills, but also returned into the end zone embarrassingly.
Even when he was doing well, basically every pass Lock connected on was a check-down to Fant or Melvin Gordon; there were no deep passes like we’ve seen when this offense has actually prospered this year.
And at 5-9, the Broncos season is once again over early as they’ll miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year.
Over that five-year span, the Broncos have started 10 different quarterbacks. That’s insane.
It’s insane because John Elway has continued to do the same thing while expecting different results. He’s drafted many, none of them worked. That included Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian and most lately, Drew Lock. He also signed veterans like Case Keenum and Joe Flacco, niether of them worked out either.
Something has to end this madness for the Broncos.
No doubt, Denver fans were desperate for Lock to be “the guy,” the quarterback of the future. But that seems less and less likely the longer we go into his career.
16 games into his career, which would be one full season but it’s been stretched over two years because of multiple awkward injuries, and Lock’s numbers are: A 59.7 completion percentage for 3,340 yards with 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. And don’t forget to add in the 10 fumbles (5 lost) along with 173 yards on the ground and 2 TDs.
That might’ve been a decent full season back in the early 1990s, but in 2020, it’s a joke.
Josh Allen just surpassed the 4,000-yard mark today, with 30 touchdowns passing (9 INTs) and 8 touchdowns on the ground. Those are “the guy” numbers in only 14 games.
Unlike Lock, who looked lost all day long, Allen took over the game today in new Mile High Stadium. He stood tall in the pocket and delivered strikes in a variety of ways, and then disrespected Denver by running all over them for 11 yards per rush.
Interestingly, Allen was the least-accurate quarterback when he entered the league in 2018. But, in his second season he surged by six percentage points, and was still awful at 58.8 percent. The leap Allen has made in terms of accuracy this year is otherwordly. He’s increased to completing 68.6 percent of his passes, which is sixth-best in the NFL.
That leaves some to believe Lock could follow the same path. But, really, can he?
Undoubtedly, we all saw today how much more athletically gifted Allen is than Lock. The Bills quarterback is bigger, stronger and faster than Lock, who is mobile himself, so that’s saying something. Allen refuses to be sacked — he stiff-armed Bradley Chubb — and his arm may just be the strongest in the NFL.
What changed? Last year, the Bills added Cole Beasley to the squad and in this offseason, it was Stefon Diggs. Beasley is a solid slot guy who quietly enjoyed a 112-yard game today, but Diggs is arguably the best receiver in the NFL this season.
The other thing Buffalo has done has been to stick with Brian Daboll at offensive coordinator, who’s shaped the offense around Allen.
There’s no guarantee Lock will grow by 10 percentage points in his accuracy, or that he will throw the ball with balance instead of off his back foot, or that he will simply throw it away instead of forcing it.
16 games into his career and Lock has played: 2 great games (Houston, ’19 and Carolina), 6 mediocre games and 8 bad games. In 7 of those games, he’s thrown for under 200 yards. In 5 of those games he’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. That increases to 8 games when including fumbles.
It’s early in his career, sure. He’s had two different offensive coordinators and many teammates have been injured (like Courtland Sutton). But Lock hasn’t been consistently good enough to be “the guy” for the Broncos.
He’ll get the start next year, at least to start the season. But if he keeps playing like this, Lock will lose the starting job midway through 2021.