Is Drew Lock a lock to the Denver Broncos at No. 10 overall?
Back in January, that was seemingly how this 2019 draft was shaping up for the team who reigns over the Rocky Mountain time zone. But, little more than two months have passed, a time frame that seems more like a year; Lock to the Broncos at 10 now lands on the “less likely” end of the spectrum than “likely.”
And while Denver is certainly still considering quarterbacks in this 2019 draft — even if 2020’s class is considered much stronger — avoiding Lock could be the best course of action for John Elway and Co.
That’s because, as Pro Football Focus’ Steve Palazzolo points out, Lock is strikingly similar to a former Broncos quarterback in Jay Cutler.
Now, lately, fans in the Mile High City have been wondering how the Broncos would currently look if Cutler was given a chance to blossom into a star instead of being traded away to the Chicago Bears. It’s a valid question to wonder, but we should also keep in mind it’s easier to remember the good and not the bad.
Cutler was a strong-armed and at times deadly quarterback. However, that arm — which he was cocky enough to say was stronger than Elway’s — got Cutler into trouble when he would regularly force passes into covered receivers, resulting in turnovers. He also missed open receivers at times, lacking the ability to make all the throws at all the right times.
Those same characteristics led Palazzolo to make the comparison of Lock to Cutler in his piece on PFF’s website, brilliantly illustrating the two quarterbacks making the same throws in their respective final years of college.
Lock possesses that big, lively arm which allows him to make all the throws on the field. He can go deep at a moment’s notice or drop the ball into a tight space with relative ease. But, he can also be shockingly late on flat routes, staring down a receiver and forcing the ball in dangerously.
The criticisms of Lock’s game have been consistent over the last few months. His footwork is inconsistent as he relies on his strong arm to bail him out at times. When he’s rushed, Lock can fade away from throws instead of stepping into them, a recipe for disaster at the next level. And, on easy go routes to the end zone, he lacks the touch needed to secure a touchdown for his team.
The good news about Drew Lock is he’s improved year after year in terms of their grading, both overall and as a passer.
Drew Lock’s college grades. Credit: Pro Football Focus.
The bad news, those improvements may not be enough to warrant a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft.
That’s because, those raw grades are a nice starting point of evaluation, but the ability to avoid negatively-graded throws are even more key. Pro Football Focus has revolutionized the way we look at player evaluation in the NFL, and this lesser-known statistic is another reason why they’re the best at what they do.
While Lock’s ability to avoid those negatively-graded throws improved every season, his 49th and 47th ranks in his final two years of college don’t inspire much confidence in his abilities to make the right decision and then make the right throw, at the right time.
The way PFF grades throws is based upon expectations and the example they give is a screen pass. Because a quarterback is expected to make that throw, if he does, it’s a zero grade. If he misses it, it can be a negative grade up to 0.5, higher when the pass is dangerously thrown and could result in a turnover.
While some are trying to compare Lock to Patrick Mahomes in their abilities to make any throw on the field, Mahomes was able to rank 10th in his final year of college in avoiding negatively-graded throws while Lock was 47th last season.
Another interesting tidbit from PFF; they’ve ranked quarterbacks in “clusters” of players with Cluster 1 being the best, where players like Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins and Brett Rypien land. Lock finds himself in Cluster 2, considered a “safe” quarterback.
The conclusion is this: Lock is a first-round quarterback, but he’s better suited for the second half of that first round rather than where the Broncos sit, at 10. After looking at all the PFF data, selecting Lock with a top-10 pick would be a risk, one Elway would hopefully have to feel really confident in taking.
Avoiding Lock at 10 doesn’t mean the Broncos can’t find another quarterback later in the draft, they certainly can, but the most important thing they can do with that first-round pick is land a certain starter like Devin White or Ed Oliver (if either falls that far).
