The Denver Nuggets entered the 2025-26 season with perhaps the highest pre-season expectations in franchise history.

Before winning a championship in the 2022-23 season, the Nuggets had to prove a lot of analysts and fans wrong about their championship ceiling. Doubters persisted along the entire pathway until the Nuggets swept the Los Angeles Lakers in brutal fashion. It was only after that moment when expectations truly became “championship” from the general consensus.

With that context applied, as well as a strong offseason, the Nuggets entered 2025-26 with higher expectations than when they actually won the championship. Despite the Oklahoma City Thunder playing at an extremely high level, the Nuggets were a popular preseason championship pick for many people.

25 games into the year, that sentiment hasn’t changed. The Nuggets are 19-6 and playing fantastic basketball.

Before the season, I went through and predicted the results of every game on Locked On Nuggets with my colleague Matt Moore. The actual results of individual games have been decidedly different than we thought, but the record through 25 games was…17-8. We both assumed Denver would go 1-1 in this two-game stretch of added games post NBA Cup, and the Nuggets have of course gone 2-0.

Still, Denver even picked up an extra win beyond what we realistically thought. By winning the first Houston Rockets game and the Atlanta Hawks game, both on the road, the Nuggets outperformed expectations through 25 games. It was of course unfair to project the Nuggets would win 11 straight road games, something they’ve never done before in franchise history.

Perhaps this is simply a year of firsts though.

Beyond a simple record prediction, the Nuggets have a Net Rating of +9.0 per 100 possessions, which currently ranks fourth in the NBA behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, the aforementioned Rockets, and the NBA Cup champion New York Knicks.

League Summary page via Cleaning the Glass

Having what is statistically the best offense in NBA history will do that, with Denver scoring 126.0 points per 100 possessions. League average in the NBA is currently 116.0, meaning the Nuggets are a full 10 points per 100 possessions better than the next best team. Nikola Jokic is driving that bus, while Jamal Murray is his navigator and the Nuggets veteran additions the newly reinforced chassi.

Defensively, the Nuggets are still a bit underwhelming. They’re dominating so much offensively that they frequently let go of the rope when an average offensive team would be forced to clamp down. Denver’s defense is better than their 18th ranking in my mind. In addition, the Nuggets among all teams rank 25th in defensive rating against Bottom 10 offenses, which says to me that Denver isn’t often locked in during those situations to take advantage of a good matchup.

Denver’s defense is actually above average in opponent eFG% allowed, opponent OREB%, and opponent free throw rate. Where they struggle most is forcing turnovers, ranking second to worst among all teams with a 12.9% forced turnover rate. The Nuggets don’t gamble for steals which often allows the opposing offense to gain a level of comfort without being physically bothered.

But outside of forcing turnovers and the mobility of their centers, the Nuggets are a pretty solid defense. They make smart plays, contest shots on the perimeter reasonably well, and do a nice job of not hurting themselves on the defensive end. That’s allowed them to start 19-6, despite being without Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun for significant time.

So, where do the Nuggets go from here?

Well, Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun should both be back in about 10 to 20 days. Expecting either back before Christmas would be optimistic, while some time around January 1st makes more sense for both players. Because the Nuggets have won more games than expected, they’ve afforded the opportunity to take their time in bringing back two starters to full health.

While Denver waits, Spencer Jones and Peyton Watson continue to provide solid connective minutes as starters. Cam Johnson has been up and down this season but is figuring out when and how he cam most impact the game. Julian Strawther just returned and should be able to assist Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, and Jonas Valanciunas off the bench soon.

But it all comes down to Jokic and Murray, who are playing at exceptional levels and giving the Nuggets an extremely high level of margin for error. If those two continue playing at such levels, Denver can continue to bank enough wins to make 60+ a possibility.

Before the season, I predicted the Nuggets would win exactly 58 games. That prediction still has an opportunity to work out. The Nuggets are actually pacing for 60.5 wins according to CTG based on their point differential so far. The teams around them will continue to challenge Denver, and they’ve mostly taken advantage of a softer portion of their schedule so far.

Things get more challenging once Christmas comes. At that point, we will learn more about who the Nuggets are and what they want to become this season.