Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga

Age: 20 years old     Size: 6’10, 238 pounds

Last Season’s Stats: 17.5 points; 11.8 rebounds; 1.8 assists

Percentages: 60.6% from the field; 35.7% from three-point; 76.8% from the free throw line

While, on paper, Sabonis looks like one of the higher-end prospects in the draft, the reality could be much different than that. Sabonis brings a high basketball IQ, strong rebounding instincts and offensive scoring, but his biggest issue is his physical nature.

Sabonis is a post-heavy machine on offense. He has a hodgepodge of post moves and counter moves coupled with footwork so clean it could be mistaken for a dance. He finished the season with a staggering 66 true shooting percentage and 1.15 points per possession in the post. Sabonis adds ball fakes and head fakes to his pristine footwork and post moves to draw his defender into fouling. He averaged 7.1 free throws per 40 minutes.

Sabonis also improved his jump shot and extended it to three-point distance. He was 5-14 from three-point and 22-45 on all jumpers this past year. He can take his man off the dribble in a straight line and is a smart passer. He rebounded incredibly well to the tune of 15.1 rebounds per 40 minutes and used his motor to pull down 3.9 offense rebounds per 40 minutes. He has a fantastic motor and plays with fire, but can all of these positives outweigh his massive negatives?

Sabonis is only 6-foot-10 with a 6-foot-10.5 wingspan. He plays largely below the rim and will have lots of issues guarding power forwards or centers. He plays very stiff and, while he is strong, he is narrow and gets pushed out of position offensively and defensively. He does not protect the rim and will struggle mightily when switched off onto a guard on the perimeter. Being that he does not cover ground well, he is very foul prone. His chance to become a NBA rotation player will rely heavily on if he can extend his perimeter game into a much greater strength than it is now.

When it comes to his fit with the Nuggets, he seems quite redundant with Lauvergne and Jokic on the roster. His physical limitations also make him even less of a chance to get selected by the Nuggets. Chalk me up as a skeptic of seeing Sabonis in a Nuggets jersey.