We thought this would be a tough series, and there’s very little in the way of surprise that the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are tied 1-1 heading into a pivotal Game 3.

Can the Nuggets bounce back from a clutch time loss in Game 2?

Let’s talk basketball.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Los Angeles: James Harden, Norman Powell, Kris Dunn, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac

Key Bench Players

Denver: Jalen Pickett, Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and DeAndre Jordan played in Game 2. Zeke Nnaji did not play.

Los Angeles: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Derrick Jones Jr., Nicolas Batum, and Ben Simmons played in Game 2. Amir Coffey did not play.

Notable Injuries

Denver: Michael Porter Jr. – QUESTIONABLE (left shoulder sprain), DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Los Angeles: None

Key for the Nuggets – Finding Space to Live

So much of this series is about generating space and being comfortable operating when there’s none to be had. On both ends of the floor. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets handled things well in Game 1 while Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers committed turnovers. The script was flipped in Game 2, and unsurprisingly, so was the result.

Several of Denver’s turnovers in the fourth quarter of Game 2 were a result of forcing passes into windows that weren’t there. The Clippers were collapsing on the Nuggets in the paint, and with so many awesome defenders with elite hands like Kris Dunn, Kawhi Leonard, and Nicolas Batum, the Nuggets need to be more conscientious of spacing the floor accurately to make those passing windows as large as possible.

Beyond that, the Nuggets just simply have to make shots. It’s that simple. If the Nuggets make open threes, life will be a lot easier trying to create driving opportunities in isolation, pick and roll, and post up situations.

Important Matchup – The Nuggets defense vs Kawhi Leonard

This one is pretty simple. Kawhi Leonard is shooting 70% from the field and averaging over 30 points per game. Leonard has found success no matter who he has faced, but the most success has happened against Jamal Murray and other smaller guards. The Nuggets have mixed up matchups to not have Aaron Gordon guard Leonard the entire time. That’s okay if it’s Peyton Watson or Christian Braun. Less okay if it’s Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Nikola Jokic.

Whatever the Nuggets need to do to slow down Leonard is probably worth exploring. It’s unlikely he goes 15-of-19 again, but if the Nuggets allow easier matchups consistently, he will take advantage.

Series Adjustment – What if Michael Porter Jr. doesn’t play?

Michael Porter Jr. is questionable for tonight’s game after taking a hard fall at the end of Game 2 and suffering a shoulder sprain.

I wrote about some of the things Denver can do if Porter misses any time. Peyton Watson probably gets the start, but there’s an argument for Russell Westbrook to get the nod instead given that he’s been good and played the most time.

No matter who gets the opportunity, the Nuggets will need to be better offensively even without great spacing. Porter made an impact in Game 2, but the Nuggets can play more defensive minded lineups without him. It will involve a major investment across the board in a defensive identity. Are the Nuggets willing to do that?

Number of the Day – 23.5

That’s the corner three-point percentage that the Clippers shot on the road during the first two games in Denver. Just 23.5%. It wasn’t like the Clippers prioritized finding great shooters in the corners though. Kris Dunn shot 1-of-7. Nicolas Batum shot 2-of-4. Derrick Jones Jr. shot 0-of-3. Norman Powell shot 0-of-2. Kawhi Leonard shot 1-of-1. That’s the extent of LA’s corner three-point shooting.

They say that role players shoot better at home and stars have to carry the burden on the road. Now that the Clippers are back home, Denver cannot expect their three-point shooters to continue bricking. Norman Powell will get going. Kris Dunn will make more. Even Bogdan Bogdanovic should find more comfort in LA. I’m expecting Denver’s role players to take a dip shooting wise while LA’s shooters get better on a similar shot diet, perhaps a better one if the Nuggets decide to double Kawhi Leonard.

Nugget who should have a good game: Christian Braun

I’m willing to bet that Christian Braun takes it personally in Game 3. He’s been in tough situations before and thrived, though never with this much pressure squarely on his shoulders. I still think he lives up to it though. The Clippers are going to dare him to shoot and drive, and they’re going to attack him defensively with both James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. Braun is a game though, and if the Nuggets are going to get a win, it has to be a Christian Braun game in some ways, showcasing how he can impact things.