The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder have played two incredible games and one blowout so far. The Nuggets have won the close games. The Thunder dominated the other matchup. Will these two teams just continue to alternate wins heading into a long series? Or can the Nuggets take control of this series and generate a 3-1 lead against the best team in the NBA?

Let’s talk basketball.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein

Key Bench Players

Denver: Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther played in Game 1. DeAndre Jordan and Jalen Pickett did not play.

Oklahoma City: Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams all played Game 1. Kenrich Williams did not.

Notable Injuries

Denver: DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Oklahoma City: Nikola Topic – OUT

Key for the Nuggets – Get Nikola Jokic going

There’s nothing more important for the Nuggets in Game 4 than helping Nikola Jokic get out of his funk from Game 3. Really outside of Game 1 against the Thunder, the last five games have been some low efficiency outings for Jokic.

  • Game 5 vs LAC – 13 points, 34.6 eFG% (really bad)
  • Game 6 @ LAC – 25 points, 54.5 eFG% (good)
  • Game 7 vs LAC – 16 points, 46.4 eFG% (bad)
  • Game 2 @ OKC – 17 points, 43.8 eFG% (bad)
  • Game 3 vs OKC – 20 points, 32.0 eFG% (really bad)

Expecting a player that maintained a 62.7 eFG% during the regular season to shoot that poorly seems wild, but the Clippers were a great defense with a great individual defender in Ivica Zubac while the Thunder are a historic defense with a variety of elite team defenders around two long, athletic bigs in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. What’s making it worse is that Jokic has been surprisingly inefficient when being guarded by backup big man Jaylin Williams (3-of-13 from the field, 1 assist, three turnovers, according to NBA.com’s wonky tracking data).

Finding more ways to get Jokic in the middle of the floor with space will be essential in Game 4. Denver has designed plays to free up those looks, and finding the right play against the right coverage will be important. More than that though, Jokic just has to find his shooting stroke. Many of the threes he attempted were considered open jumpers, and those are ones Denver needs him to make if they’re going to win another two games against this Thunder squad.

Important Matchup – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Christian Braun

It was obviously important that the Nuggets did a better job on SGA going from Game 2 (34 points on 13 shots) to Game 3 (18 points on 22 shots). They accomplished that, and while the Nuggets are giving credit to Christian Braun (and Jamal Murray) for stepping up to the challenge offensively, it appeared that SGA simply forced up some bad shots and tried to draw fouls at inopportune times as well.

So, which is more real: Denver’s hope that Braun slowed SGA down? Or OKC’s hope that SGA just missed make-able shots? it’s probably somewhere in the middle, which is where I expect SGA’s Game 4 performance to reside. He has to shoot better than 7-of-22 from the field if the Thunder are going to win Game 4. Can Braun lock in and help Denver win their second home game?

Series Adjustment – Michael Porter Jr.’s confident shotmaking

The difference between Porter’s attempts in Games 1 and 2 and Porter’s attempts in Game 3 was night and day. Porter’s aggressiveness to let shots fly stood out early and often as the Nuggets attempted to draw up some flare screens for the 6’10” forward, and he responded with some big makes to keep Denver in the game while Jokic struggled. The Thunder gambled a bit with their coverage against him, and Porter punished them for not staying attached. That’s probably not going to happen again in Game 4, so Porter and the Nuggets will have to be more conscientious about creating shots in transition where possible.

Number of the Day – 6

That’s the number of shots Aaron Gordon has made in the playoffs in the fourth quarter and overtime with less than three minutes to go and the score within three points. Gordon is 6-of-9 from the field and 2-of-3 from three-point range. Those six made shots are tied for third in the NBA despite the nine shot attempts being far less than Jalen Brunson, Jayson Tatum, and shockingly, Nikola Jokic. Those stars have been far less efficient than expected, but Gordon has picked up the slack for the Nuggets in the clutch. If Denver’s in a close game and in need of a big shot, Gordon has been great for Denver so far in these playoffs.

Nugget who should have a good game – Nikola Jokic

I mean, it will be better than the last game. Jokic has never played a playoff game like that before, and the great thing about him is that he’s able to wipe the slate most of the time. Now that Denver’s up 2-1, there’s certainly pressure, but there’s a bit less than Denver being tied 1-1 or down 1-2 in this situation. Jokic needs to play it loose, be more patient, and pick his spots a bit better than he did in Game 3. The Thunder have made it incredibly complex for him to attack their halfcourt defense, but the more Jokic sees the better he and the Nuggets should continue to get.