The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are in a critical Game 4 today. All of the momentum is with the Clippers after a 34-point Game 3 blowout. The Nuggets didn’t show up and let go of the rope relatively early. Are they going to do the same thing again? Or is there still some fight left in this Nuggets squad?

Let’s talk basketball.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Los Angeles: James Harden, Norman Powell, Kris Dunn, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac

Key Bench Players

Denver: Jalen Pickett, Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, and DeAndre Jordan played in Game 3. Zeke Nnaji did not play until garbage time.

Los Angeles: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Derrick Jones Jr., Nicolas Batum, and Ben Simmons played in Game 3. Amir Coffey did not play until garbage time.

Notable Injuries

Denver: Michael Porter Jr. – QUESTIONABLE (left shoulder sprain), Russell Westbrook – QUESTIONABLE (left foot inflammation), DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Los Angeles: None

Key for the Nuggets – Is the team healthy enough?

The reporting from Marc Spears and Ramona Shelbourne of ESPN about the state of the Nuggets locker room after Game 3 wasn’t super encouraging.

Porter is dealing with a significant shoulder injury that should be close to a month long absence during the regular season but is instead something he’s suffering through. Aaron Gordon’s calf injury continues to nag him as he continues to limp during the second half of games. Russell Westbrook was forced to leave the game on Thursday. Jamal Murray is often dealing with something.

Ultimately, the Nuggets don’t have a lot of answers to go to if their main rotation is limited. Julian Strawther got his first minutes on Thursday. Maybe Jalen Pickett can play more. Can I interest you in Zeke Nnaji vs Kawhi Leonard? No?

Important Matchup – Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray vs three Clippers defenders

The Clippers are still attempting to send a third defender at the Jokic-Murray two-man game as often as they can. Jokic and Murray handled that reasonably well as individual scorers with 46 points on 17-of-29 from the field in Game 3. Unfortunately, the rest of the Nuggets shot 14-of-48 from the field. Not only is 29% not good enough, but the proportion of shot attempts isn’t good enough either. The Nuggets are trying to make the right play, but right now, the right play is setting up Jokic and Murray to score as often as possible.

Can Jokic and Murray each go for 30 points? 35 points? 40 points? That’s probably what it will take to have a shot in Game 4.

Series Adjustment – Doubling James Harden and Kawhi Leonard led to wide open threes

Kawhi Leonard had 21 points on 17 shots in Game 3. That’s a threshold that Denver should be able to live with. James Harden had 20 points on 14 shots. A bit more efficient but still reasonable. The big issue was they each combined for 15 assists compared to just three turnovers. As the Nuggets sent more help individually, they gave up more open threes to players like Norman Powell, Nicolas Batum, Derrick Jones Jr. and more. The Clippers shot 11-of-20 on “wide open” threes in Game 3 which, shockingly, is not something the Nuggets should be allowing. Denver, by comparison, shot 2-of-13 on “wide open” threes. Nikola Jokic shot 1-of-1.

Can the Nuggets both guard Harden/Kawhi well and also guard the three-point line and also guard the paint? Probably not. Denver played good defense in the first two games, but they’re running out of gas quickly in this series and have to work extremely hard on the offensive end just to generate good shots. Call me pessimistic about the defense returning to form unless the Clippers miss open shots.

Number of the Day – 16

That’s the number of three-pointers the LA Clippers have hit in the final seven seconds of the shot clock this series. They’re shooting 16-of-32, good for 50% from three with the clock winding down. It’s by far the best in the NBA so far in the playoffs.

The Nuggets just haven’t benefitted from the same shot luck, but you know what they say about making your own luck…

Nugget who should have a good game: Nikola Jokic

It’s impossible to predict anyone but Nikola Jokic at this point. Who knows what this game has in store? Jokic will be there, and he will play very aggressively this time around.