Another Game 5 with the series tied 2-2.

The last time this happened, Denver Nuggets fans felt pretty good afterwards. Jamal Murray had a great game against the Los Angeles Clippers to help the Nuggets take a commanding 3-2 series lead in the first round. Even though Denver squandered Game 6 in LA, they made it happen in Game 7 in blowout fashion.

This time, they’re in a worse position, heading to OKC for Game 5 with the prospect of having to win at least one more game on the road to advance in this series. In addition, the Nuggets are clearly gassed already, and the longer the playoffs go, the more tired Denver will be. Can they make it happen in Game 5 with a bounce back performance?

Let’s talk basketball.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein

Key Bench Players

Denver: Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther played in Game 4.

Oklahoma City: Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams all played Game 4.

Notable Injuries

Denver: Hunter Tyson – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Oklahoma City: Nikola Topic – OUT

Key for the Nuggets – Stay attached

The last time the Nuggets were in Oklahoma City, they were down by nearly 50 points. That simply cannot happen in Game 5. It’s a best two-out-of-three series from here on out, and the Nuggets are going to have to win a road game at some point. Why not Game 5? Why not immediately come in and declare the Nuggets aren’t going anywhere with a strong first quarter? Even if Denver isn’t leading outright, they simply cannot let this game get out of hand. Denver’s already show what happens when they have to expend too much energy to make a comeback. It’s why they ran out of gas in Game 4. Instead, do the hard work early, then stay attached for the rest of the game until making a final push when the time comes.

Important Matchup – Bench vs Bench

In Game 4, OKC won because their bench was better in a critical moment. From having more options, to better shotmaking, to better versatility, to simply more production, OKC dominated the bench minutes. They got 36 points on 28 shot attempts from five players on their second unit. The Nuggets got 8 points on 15 shot attempts, primarily from Russell Westbrook. This isn’t strictly a Westbrook criticism. He played below standard, but the Nuggets are simply asking for nothing and getting nothing from the rest of their second unit. They’re relying on their bench as a conduit to get back to their starters, not as an actual change of pace. Could that change in Game 5? On the road? Unlikely. The real question is whether OKC’s bench can replicate their impressive performance in Game 4.

Series Adjustment – OKC solving Denver’s zone or Denver not deploying it correctly?

Through the first three quarters of Game 4, the Nuggets allowed just 63 points and looked like they were on their way to a win with strong defense. Then, OKC hit a few threes against the non-Jokic bench unit that was still playing zone defense. Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace hit open threes that the Nuggets allowed without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor to create them. It was bad timing, but the Nuggets can still play zone in this series, especially the 2-3 zone with Jokic in the middle. He did a great job in Game 4 using his stands to steal passes and deflect a lob attempt, and the Nuggets looked like they were flummoxing OKC. When it’s Aaron Gordon in the middle, he’s just less imposing with his size and wingspan than Jokic. The Nuggets need to deploy their zone at the right time, and they might have to avoid using it at various moments if the Thunder are finding open threes consistently.

Number of the Day – 78

That’s the number of minutes the Nuggets starting lineup has played against the Thunder in four games so far. 78 minutes, and the Nuggets are +12 in those minutes despite sporting shooting splits of 40.4% from the field and 33.8% from three. Denver has an offensive rating of just 103.1 with the starters on the floor, but they’re sporting a 97.5 defensive rating to make up for it. The fact that a lineup featuring all three of Jokic, Murray, and Porter can get to that place against the best team in the NBA is a really impressive feat.

78 minutes played for the starters. 33 minutes played for the starters with Westbrook in place of Porter. The next most popular five man lineup: 11 total minutes played. Denver has three lineups that have exceeded double digit minutes. Oklahoma City only has four themselves.

Nugget who should have a good game – Nikola Jokic

Let’s try this again.

Going back and watching Game 4, it felt different than Game 3 for Jokic. In Game 3, Jokic looked frazzled, dazed, and confused vs an incredible OKC defense. In Game 4, Jokic was under better control. He just missed, partially because he’s tired, partially because OKC is incredible, and partially because sometimes, you just miss. There were already some signs that Jokic’s decision making was improving (just two turnovers in Game 4). Maybe if he sees a couple floaters and jumpers go down, he can force OKC to overcommit and free up some shots for teammates.

The Nuggets need a great game from him. After struggling in the last three games, it’s now or never for Jokic.