Game 6 is the first possible elimination game of this series for the Denver Nuggets. The last time they faced elimination, they dominated in Game 7 vs the Los Angeles Clippers. Can Denver repeat that performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder?

Let’s talk basketball.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein

Key Bench Players

Denver: Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther played in Game 5.

Oklahoma City: Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams all played Game 5.

Notable Injuries

Denver: Hunter Tyson – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Oklahoma City: Nikola Topic – OUT

Key for the Nuggets – Finish Stronger

In both Game 4 and Game 5, the Denver Nuggets possessed a lead in the fourth quarter and watched it slip away for similar reasons. In Game 4, everyone struggled, and the Nuggets were outscored 29-18 due to fatigue and slippage in the clutch. In Game 5, Jokic was fantastic, but the Nuggets were outscored 34-19 in a similar situation while watching the Thunder finish the game strong for the second time.

The Nuggets have to finish stronger, which means they have to get to the fourth quarter in a moment where they can play their best basketball. If not that, then their lead has to be large enough that it cannot be overtaken by the Thunder for the third game in a row.

Important Matchup – Jamal Murray vs Jalen Williams

We are at the stage of the series where Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have mostly figured out what they’re going to see from the opposing defense and will make the right decisions. Whether that’s the score or pass, both stars had a great Game 5 and should be expected to repeat things in Game 6. Neither Jamal Murray nor Jalen Williams had a great Game 5, because while Murray had 28 points, he did so on 27 shots, had a negative assist-turnover ratio, and was part of the defensive breakdown that gave up an open three to Williams that felt like a dagger late in the game. Williams had 18 points on 14 shots but added nine rebounds, four assists, and zero turnovers.

Which direction will this matchup go in Game 6? That might end up being the difference in the series.

Series Adjustment – Jokic passes not being paid off

As great as Jokic was as a scorer in Game 5 with 44 points, he also racked up a whopping 20 potential assists. The Nuggets finished with just five, one of the worst success rates on potential assists in recent playoff history at that volume. The Nuggets simply have to make more shots when the ball finds them, whether it’s in transition, spotting up in the halfcourt, or involved in the action. Jokic will deliver the right pass, but it will be on Michael Porter Jr. (25.9% from three in this series), Christian Braun (25.8%), and Russell Westbrook (20.0%) to make the open shots when they arrive.

Number of the Day – 31.4%

That’s the field goal percentage that Russell Westbrook has held opposing offensive players to when being guarded by him in the playoffs. 31.4% is a truly incredible number and one that’s been lost in the shuffle. His offense has been suspect at times, but the defense has been consistent, especially his help defense from the weak side to bother opposing slashers. The Nuggets don’t often use Westbrook as the primary defender against SGA, but perhaps they should lean into that in Game 6, allowing Braun to guard Williams and Murray to take an easier defensive assignment more consistently than when Porter is on the court.

Nugget who should have a good game – Aaron Gordon

It’s been a really good series for Aaron Gordon overall with 16.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, shooting 48.1% from three and making incredibly important shots throughout. At home, I bet it continues for the veteran power forward who has stepped up when the Nuggets needed him most throughout this entire playoff run. Battling Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Isaiah Hartenstein throughout the series has been tough, but Gordon has endured and stay impactful on both ends of the floor. I think he makes some big plays tonight once again.