It’s time for the two best words in sports: Game 7.

The Denver Nuggets have been in this spot before. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have actually done this on several occasions. The last two franchises in NBA history to play multiple Game 7’s in a single playoff run: the 2019 Denver Nuggets and 2020 Denver Nuggets. They simply know how to manage these moments, and that should give Nuggets fans some confidence in Denver’s ability to handle their toughest foe yet.

Will it be enough?

Let’s talk basketball.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein

Key Bench Players

Denver: Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther played in Game 6. Zeke Nnaji and DeAndre Jordan could play if Gordon does not.

Oklahoma City: Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams all played Game 6.

Notable Injuries

Denver: Aaron Gordon – QUESTIONABLE, Jamal Murray – PROBABLE, Russell Westbrook – PROBABLE, Hunter Tyson – QUESTIONABLE, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Oklahoma City: Nikola Topic – OUT

Key for the Nuggets – Aaron Gordon’s status

According to Shams Charania of ESPN, Gordon’s availability for Game 7 is “in doubt” following a left hamstring strain he suffered in Game 6. Yesterday, I wrote a long piece on surviving Gordon’s absence, laying out a variety of rotation concepts based on Gordon’s availability and impact level.

If Gordon is available and ready to go, the Nuggets have a great chance. If he’s not, things get dicey really quickly. Gordon’s size and versatility have been impactful on both ends of the floor. He’s one of the big reasons why OKC’s Jalen Williams has struggled in this series, and Gordon’s ability to hit a timely shot or create one for others is essential. Whether it’s Michael Porter Jr., or Christian Braun, or Peyton Watson, or Russell Westbrook, or someone else stepping up, the Nuggets will need everyone for Game 7 if Gordon can’t go.

Important Matchup – Christian Braun vs Lu Dort

The common maxim for playoff basketball is that stars travel and role players don’t, especially when it comes to shooting. That’s obviously not always true, but in Games 5 and 6, it certainly was. In Game 5 in OKC, Lu Dort hit three massive three-pointers in a row in the fourth quarter to give the Thunder the momentum they needed to pull away from Denver. In Game 6, Christian Braun returned the favor with 23 points, including a massive second quarter run that saw hit hit two three-pointers of his own.

Game 7 would seemingly favor Dort and OKC role players at home; however, this is Braun we’re talking about here. The last Game 7 he played in, he logged 21 points on 8-of-15 from the field and 3-of-5 from three against the Los Angeles Clippers. Can Braun do it on the road in a hostile environment against an even better team with the season on the line? We will see.

Series Adjustment – Jalen Williams’ struggles

During the regular season, Jalen Williams averaged a combined 32.0 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) per game. Against the Memphis Grizzlies, that number jumped up to 33.9 PRA as he found consistent scoring opportunities vs a flawed Grizzlies frontcourt.

Against the Nuggets, here are his game to game totals in P+R+A:

  • Game 1 – 29
  • Game 2 – 28
  • Game 3 – 40
  • Game 4 – 18
  • Game 5 – 31
  • Game 6 – 23

Despite the increase in minutes per game and usage, Williams hasn’t been productive enough for the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been good enough for OKC, but if Jalen Williams isn’t good enough, the Nuggets have a chance. No matter what happens with Aaron Gordon, the Nuggets must stay focused on Williams in their coverages and prevent him from getting free at the wrong time.

Number of the Day – 3

That’s the total number of Game 7’s the OKC Thunder have played as a team. SGA, Dort, and Isaiah Hartenstein have each played in one apiece, while the Nuggets have combined for 36 total. This underscores the experience advantage that Denver has, something they will attempt to lean on when the time comes.

Nugget who should have a good game – Nikola Jokic

It’s fair to expect Jokic to have a good game. For the Nuggets to win Game 7 though, he will probably have to be great. Gordon’s injury underscores what’s likely to be the heaviest burden Jokic has had to carry in any one game so far this year. Gordon is usually Denver’s backup center, but we’re running into territory where Denver may have to go without a backup center if Gordon is unable to manage those minutes. Expect Jokic to play at least 42 minutes and potentially the entire second half once again. It’s a large obligation, but between Jokic’s responsibilities on both ends of the floor, there are few players in NBA history that can manage that burden better.