As the Denver Nuggets trudge through the first part of the 2025-26 NBA season, they’ve been hit with a degree of adversity.
No, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray aren’t missing an extended period of time. That would be catastrophic.
Instead, it’s Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon who will be out for the foreseeable future.
Braun sustained a high ankle sprain on November 12th against the Los Angeles Clippers and was given a six-week timetable. At least, he would be re-evaluated in six weeks. Gordon sustained a Grade 2 hamstring strain last Friday, November 21st against the Houston Rockets. He was given a four to six-week timetable before being re-evaluated himself.
If, hypothetically, Braun misses the full six weeks and Gordon misses about five weeks (the midpoint of that timetable) then they should both return about the same time: Monday, December 29th against the Miami Heat, toward the beginning of Denver’s seven-game road trip. That would be pretty close to best case scenario because it means both players were evaluated and deemed fit to return to play without any setbacks.
Real life is rarely so clean, and there’s a possibility one or both players miss the rest of 2025 and return sometime in January instead.
Whatever the case, it’s fair to project both players to miss 15 or more games until that December 29th window. There are currently just 13 games on the schedule between now and then, but two more will be added after seeding for the NBA Cup concludes.
So, the Nuggets need to find ways to win without Gordon or Braun on the floor. And the stats are grim as to Denver’s chances of doing so efficiently and effectively.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Nuggets have a point differential of -12.4 per 100 possessions in the 600+ possessions they’ve played without Gordon or Braun on the floor so far this season. Cleaning the Glass eliminates garbage time, so these are real minutes, and they include Nikola Jokic.
Isolate the Jokic minutes only, and the numbers of course improve. The Nuggets have a -3.4 Net Rating so far in Jokic minutes without Gordon and Braun in 341 possessions. Seven different five-man Jokic units have played at least 20 possessions as the Nuggets pick and choose different combinations. Five of them are positive and two are negative. I expect that -3.4 Net Rating number to rise as the Nuggets gain more comfort in those looks.
But the other side of the coin is this: the Nuggets have an atrocious -23.8 Net Rating in the minutes without Jokic, Gordon, or Braun across 265 possessions. That’s bad, and the primary culprit for the bad minutes is even worse.
Denver’s primary bench lineup of Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson, and Jonas Valanciunas is down to a -17.7 Net Rating in 144 of those 265 possessions. There have been other lineups that are better and even others that are worse. Still, a -17.7 point differential is exceptionally poor. Denver’s offense with that group is bad, but unsurprisingly, the defense is worse, allowing 126.7 points per 100 possessions.
Among all lineups in the NBA to play at least 100 possessions, the Nuggets’ bench lineup has the second worst point differential in the NBA. The only group that’s worse? Ben Saraf, Cam Thomas, Terance Mann, Michael Porter Jr., and Nic Claxton, the starting lineup of the woefully bad Brooklyn Nets. How ironic.
So, combined with the fact that Denver’s missing two starters, they also have to contend with a bench unit that’s started to really struggle. Jamal Murray hasn’t been the issue either. In the minutes without Jokic this season, he’s shooting 64.7% True Shooting while averaging 35.1 points and 10.1 assists per 100 possessions. Those are absurd numbers.
Without Gordon (and to a lesser extent Braun) the scoring and playmaking pressure is amplified onto Jokic and Murray. They are seemingly equal to the challenge so far, but getting Cam Johnson to drive offense will be important. Finding consistent defensive impact from Johnson, Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Bruce Brown is integral. The Nuggets need to find excuses to get Valanciunas on the floor more too.
Having as many players as possible that can share the burden without two starters will be important. Denver must find some new ways to win, while also seeing if some new rotation players can reprise the old ways too. Denver’s still scoring at a high level for the most part, but the defense leaves something to be desired after a hot start.
Who will step up to the plate?
