This week’s edition of Stat of the Week focuses on the early season minutes and usage for the Denver Nuggets. Through five games, the Nuggets have established some interesting trends that direct where they can improve throughout the year.
First up is a simple one: Minutes per game.
- Nikola Jokic – 34.8 minutes per game
- Jamal Murray – 33.8
- Christian Braun – 30.8
- Aaron Gordon – 30.2
- Cameron Johnson – 26.8
- Tim Hardaway Jr. – 23.2
- Peyton Watson – 21.2
- Bruce Brown – 18.4
- Jonas Valanciunas – 12.0
- Jalen Pickett – 5.3
The first three names are of course identical to last season. Jokic is the best player in the world and the Nuggets will expect him to play the most. Murray has had a great start to the season and is staggering with the second unit, so it’s going to be difficult to keep his minutes down. Christian Braun, though he’s been merely okay, represents Denver’s starting guard/wing defender that helps augment what the Nuggets are trying to accomplish every night.
Aaron Gordon’s back over 30 minutes per game. Last year he averaged 28.4 with some of those games coming off the bench due to injury recovery, so 30 seems about right. Johnson has had some early injury issues, but I expect him to be around 28 to 30 minutes per game in the long haul.
Tim Hardaway Jr. has been Denver’s surprising sixth man, averaging 11.4 points per game while shooting 44.4% from three. He closed one of Denver’s wins and it will probably close more games in the future.
Peyton Watson, Bruce Brown, and Jonas Valanciunas round out the primary rotation. Valanciunas has yet to play any minutes with Jokic this season, so it’s going to be difficult for him to average more than about 13 per game unless that occurs.
Now, let’s look at Usage Rate for the starters:
- Murray – 29.1% Usage Rate (according to Basketball Reference)
- Jokic – 22.5%
- Gordon – 22.1%
- Braun – 16.1%
- Johnson – 13.3%
Some interesting wrinkles here. Murray’s Usage Rate is actually higher when he’s on the floor next to Jokic vs when Murray runs the bench unit. Conversely, Jokic’s Usage Rate is higher with Murray ON the floor and has dropped to about 20% in the minutes when Murray sits. It’s a weird dichotomy, but it appears Denver’s emphasis when Jokic and Murray are on the floor is to primarily run two or three-man game (with Aaron Gordon) while both stars look to get others involved in their minutes apart.
Jokic will take more shots going forward, but as the team gets their sea legs under them, he’s clearly operating as the steward of the offense for everyone else rather than forcing his individual offense. The most shots he’s attempted in a game so far is the 23 on opening night. Since then it’s been 8, 10, 15, and 10 shots respectively.
Gordon’s usage rate is likely elevated because of the 50-point outburst. He attempted 21 shots in that game and has attempted 11, 10, 5, and 11 shots since, much more in line with his usual role.
Braun’s usage rate last year in the same role was 15.8%, so he’s about in line with expectation.
Johnson’s number is the one that’s suffered and is most likely to revert to normal. Last season, Michael Porter Jr. maintained a 20.2% usage in Johnson’s role as the Nuggets looked to keep him involved as often as possible. Johnson may or may not get there at some point, but so far he’s staying out of the way for the most part.
In Phoenix in his first 3.5 seasons, Johnson maintained a 17.1% usage rate. After being traded to Brooklyn, Johnson maintained a 21.3% usage, including 22.9% last year. So, to start this season, a 13.3% usage rate goes well past what Johnson’s done before.
Hopefully over the next few weeks, the Nuggets can find ways for Johnson’s possessions to feel more natural. It will be a process, but it should be very rewarding if so.
It’s only been five games, and these numbers are likely to fluctuate throughout the year. Nikola Jokic will take more shots. So will Cam Johnson. Jamal Murray might take fewer shots as a result, though a 62.6% True Shooting figure implies that Murray taking the shots he has so far is really good offense for the Nuggets.
The ebbs and flows of the season will change things drastically. I expect Denver to try and get their deeper bench more involved on this road trip as well. We will see if that manifests into good or bad minutes.
There are no major takeaways to be had here so far, merely observations of how the year has started. It will be interesting to see whose role changes the most by season’s end.
