The Denver Nuggets tied a franchise record for 57 wins during the 2023-24 regular season and nearly earned both the franchise record and top seed in the Western Conference. All they needed was one more win.
Ultimately, it meant nothing when the Nuggets bowed out in the second round, gassed by a long and arduous season that came to an early end at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
This season, regular season wins should probably mean less than how the Nuggets go about achieving them.
According to BetOnline, the Over-Under win total for the Nuggets is sitting right at 51.5 this year. It’s a respectable number, the sixth highest among all NBA teams this year.
Here’s the Top 10 in win total Over-Unders on BetOnline:
- Boston Celtics – 58.5 wins
- Oklahoma City Thunder – 56.5
- New York Knicks – 53.5
- Philadelphia 76ers – 52.5
- Minnesota Timberwolves – 52.5
- Denver Nuggets – 51.5
- Milwaukee Bucks – 50.5
- Dallas Mavericks – 49.5
- Cleveland Cavaliers – 48.5
- Orlando Magic – 48.5
There are some interesting factors here, especially in the Western Conference. Despite both teams winning 57 games last season, the Nuggets and Timberwolves are down to 51.5 and 52.5 respectively. The Thunder, by comparison, remain at 56.5 on their Over-Under due to an abundance of youth, the additions of Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso, and a healthy expectation for regular season success. After winning 50 games last year with solid health, the Dallas Mavericks win total remains at 49.5 despite the offseason exchange of Derrick Jones Jr. for Klay Thompson.
Those are the only four Western Conference teams to show up in the top 10 of win projections, highlighting a perceived tier gap between the upper echelon and regular playoff teams.
In the Eastern Conference, six teams make up the top ten in win total projections. The reigning champion Boston Celtics remain at the top of all win projections after lapping the field with 64 wins last season. That was with none of the top six players in their rotation played over 74 games last season and Kristaps Porzingis playing just 57.
Two other Eastern Conference squads round out the top five due to high profile additions on the wing. The New York Knicks traded several first round picks for Mikal Bridges, reuniting with his former Villanova Wildcat teammates. The Philadelphia 76ers acquired Paul George, remaking their entire roster around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey with versatile guards. There aren’t a lot of forwards, but it might not matter in a regular season context.
So, while Las Vegas doesn’t expect a massive drop-off from the Nuggets in the regular season, it does project them to have a small reduction in wins. They remain an elite regular season squad, but expecting dominance every night might not be wise.
And honestly, that might be just fine.
There are several questions the Nuggets must work through during the regular season in preparation for the playoffs. First: replacing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope with likely Christian Braun in the starting lineup means changing a starting lineup that’s played 2,315 minutes in regular season and playoffs since 2022, by far the most in the NBA of a single lineup.
The Nuggets have a lot to figure out with Braun in Caldwell-Pope’s place, including various lineups that may not include the Kansas wing. Arguments can be made that Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther might all help Denver’s core four players in different contexts, especially in the playoffs. In order to figure out how, Denver has to try those combinations, experiment a little more than they’re used to.
That could certainly lead to fewer wins in the West for the Nuggets, but it might not mean the end of the world. Last year, the Dallas Mavericks won 50 games, were the fourth seed in the West, and still advanced to the NBA Finals despite their most played lineup sharing the floor for a grand total of 176 minutes. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Derrick Jones Jr. were joined by PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford after the trade deadline, two important additions that propelled the team forward. They didn’t have extensive time to workshop their chemistry, and it ultimately didn’t matter in the Western Conference playoffs.
Perhaps the Nuggets can step off the gas a little bit in the regular season to ensure they’re ready to go when it matters. That pertains to Braun, Watson, and Strawther especially, but it also pertains to the heavy burdens of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon. Of the four, only Murray played fewer than 73 games last season, and that was due to injury. The Nuggets fought for the top seed in the playoffs all the way until the final game of the season, and they ran out of gas in Game 7 of the playoffs. How connected those two things are is up for debate, but it makes sense to build in more rest for the top players no matter what.
Injuries might be uncontrollable, but the Nuggets can certainly control fatigue. If that means fewer wins in the regular season and a more prepared playoff roster, so be it.
To answer the question posed in the title: 50+ wins and less than 75 games for Jokic, Murray, Porter, and Gordon sounds like a great formula to me.
