Every Monday this season, it’s my commitment to put together a “Stats” focused column about the Denver Nuggets.

There are a variety of different ways I believe I can approach this column, but the most important way is to use some analytics research that I often do on my own time and try to share insights with Nuggets Nation. Let’s try to find a way to get “smarter” about this Nuggets season.

The first article focuses on everyone’s favorite basketball activity: free throws.

Right now, there’s a negative connotation around free throws around the NBA. The Oklahoma City Thunder just won the championship last season featuring an extremely physical defense and one of the most crafty scorers in NBA history in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That combination often saw the free throw line as a hotly contested topic throughout the season and into the playoffs.

To begin the 2025-26 season, there are already some crooked free throw stats occurring around the NBA.

Free throws have always been a part of the game, but scorers have become so dynamic at all locations on the floor that opposing defenders are often left helpless in different situations. Don’t step up and disrupt a scorer, and they will…well…score. Austin Reaves had 51 points last night, two days after Luka Doncic had 49. Both players had 22 and 19 free throws respectively to augment their scores.

The aforementioned SGA just had a 55-point game as well…along with 26 free throws to go with it. His 40 free throws in OKC’s first two games were the most by any player in NBA history.

I hate to be that guy, but it works. When the Nuggets are able to generate free throws as a team, they often win.

In games during the 2024-25 season when the Nuggets attempted 30+ free throws as a squad, they went 17-1.

In games during the 2023-24 season when they attempted 30+, the Nuggets went 7-0.

In the 2022-23 season when they attempted 30+, the Nuggets went 9-3.

During the Nikola Jokic era, from 2015-16 to last Saturday when Denver attempted 42 free throws, when the Nuggets attempted at least 30+ free throws, their record is 91-36. Since the 2018-19 season when Denver actually got good, their record with 30+ free throw attempts is 62-11…

62-11 is an absurd record when focusing on purely one statistic. It can also be augmented by free throw “differential” between Denver and their opponent.

  • Last season, the Nuggets were 32-17 in games when they attempted more free throws than their opponent and 18-15 in all other games.
  • Increase that differential to +5 free throw attempts, and the Nuggets had a 25-9 record.
  • Increase it to +10, and the Nuggets were 15-4. The four losses were: giving up 145 points to the New York Knicks, an early loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves when Jamal Murray entered concussion protocol, a game that all the starters missed, and the double OT debacle to the Timberwolves.

Historically, when the Nuggets attempt at least five more three throws than the opponent in the Nikola Jokic era (since 2015-16) they have a 166-76 record. Since 2018-19 when the Nuggets got good, that record goes to 110-40, which is the pace of a 60-win season.

This season more than others, I believe free throw shooting is going to control the outcome of most games. If the Nuggets can defend without fouling (and I mean actually defend, not just play ‘ole defense on the way to opponent baskets) then they will have such a significant advantage.

Denver’s style of play often puts the opposing defense in rotation around the rim. Jokic commands double teams consistently and uses his scoring threat as a way to hit cutters and drivers going directly toward the rim. Off the bench, Jonas Valanciunas does many of the same things from a size perspective, and Murray’s basketball IQ is reaching high enough levels that he can cause these plays to happen too.

Denver will probably be a team that draws a lot of fouls throughout the year. It’s something that they should leverage, especially while the officiating is called so tightly. If (when) the officiating becomes less about drawing contact and more about fighting through it, the Nuggets will have to adjust. They have the veterans to be able to do so, though I foresee some technical fouls along the way.

Until then though, other teams will be trying to leverage the ways officials are calling the game. The Nuggets shouldn’t fight these trends with righteous indignation. They should simply find the best way to win as many games as possible.

Right now (and historically) that means winning the free throw battle on both ends of the floor.